Jacquet's recent clay run narrows Paris opener

Analysis by Predict Tennis

Note: Written by humans, with the help of AI. Based on real statistical data.

Published: May 23, 2026(..)

Kyrian Jacquet faces Marco Trungelliti in the 1/64-finals of the French Open ATP on 24 May, on clay, over best-of-five sets.

The market sees this as level, but the recent trend is not quite so even. Jacquet comes in from a strong qualifying run, while Trungelliti owns the broader clay volume and a better ranking profile.

FINISHED

Jacquet K.

Trungelliti M.

4-6

, 2-6

Clay record gives both a route

Trungelliti has the heavier clay body of work this season, with 15 wins and eight losses, and his 85% hold rate gives him a clear base to build from. Jacquet's sample is smaller at 6-2, but his 30% return-game success is stronger, which matters if this match becomes more about pressure than free holds.

Recent run gives Jacquet a narrow Paris edge against Trungelliti

Jacquet has won seven of his last 10 matches and has taken his last three, including a final run through French Open qualifying. That gives him match rhythm on the same surface and in the same setting. Trungelliti's last-10 record is 3-7, and four straight defeats leave a clear form warning despite his higher ranking.

Prices make it a true coin toss

Bookmakers price Jacquet at 1.91 and Trungelliti at 1.91, with the first-set prices also level at 1.91 each. That says there is no firm market favourite, so recent form and clay return pressure carry extra weight.

Return pressure may swing the balance

Trungelliti's serve numbers are slightly stronger across the clay season, but Jacquet has been the better recent returner, winning 33% of return games across his last 10 compared with 21% for Trungelliti. The workload is close enough not to decide the match on its own, though Trungelliti has spent a little longer on court across his last three matches. Small edges matter here.

Jacquet K.

Trungelliti M.

Win Percentage

70 %30 %

Titles

1 0

Aces per match

3 3.9

Double Faults per match

3.1 3.4

First Serve Points Won

67 %70 %

Second Serve Points Won

53 %45 %

Return Points Won

43 %37 %

Break Points Converted

42 %38 %

Break Points Saved

62 %67 %

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Prediction

French Open ATPPICK

Kyrian Jacquet

56%

Predicted Winner

Marco Trungelliti

The data points narrowly towards Kyrian Jacquet, mainly because his recent form is stronger and his return numbers give him a practical route into Trungelliti's service games. Trungelliti's ranking and clay hold rate keep this close, but with the odds level, Jacquet's current rhythm is enough for a slight lean.

Odds

Odds:EUUKUS