Market backs Anisimova, but Tagger brings real hard-court form

Analysis by Predict Tennis

Note: Written by humans, with the help of AI. Based on real statistical data.

Published: Sep 2, 2026(..)

Lilli Tagger faces Amanda Anisimova in the US Open WTA 1/32-finals on 3 September, a hard-court best-of-three match with a place in the next round at stake.

The market strongly favours Anisimova, but Tagger arrives with the better recent record and stronger hard-court service numbers. That contrast makes the match less simple than the prices suggest.

Tagger serving strongly on hard courts

Tagger has gone 19-8 on hard courts this season and has won 80% of her service games, giving her a solid base for this match. Anisimova has been more dangerous on return, winning 43% of return games, and that pressure could be important if Tagger's first strike drops.

Recent results strengthen Tagger's challenge

Tagger comes in with eight wins from her last 10 matches, compared with seven for Anisimova. She has also won the opening set in 70% of those matches, so there is enough recent evidence to suggest she can make a fast start.

Bookmakers make Anisimova a clear favourite

Bookmakers price Anisimova at 1.2 against Tagger at 4.5, while the first-set prices are 1.29 and 3.75 respectively. The market therefore expects a clear Anisimova advantage, despite some of the recent numbers pointing to a closer contest.

Return pressure could decide the match

The key contest is Tagger's stronger service record against Anisimova's more effective hard-court returning. Tagger has also spent 6 hours 17 minutes on court across her last three matches, compared with Anisimova's 4 hours 32 minutes, which leaves the younger outsider with a slightly heavier recent workload.

Tagger L.

Anisimova A.

Win Percentage

80 %70 %

Titles

1 0

Aces per match

6.1 4.8

Double Faults per match

3.3 5

First Serve Points Won

70 %67 %

Second Serve Points Won

52 %53 %

Return Points Won

45 %45 %

Break Points Converted

42 %59 %

Break Points Saved

61 %60 %

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Prediction

US Open WTAPICK

Amanda Anisimova

68%

Predicted Winner

Lilli Tagger

Anisimova is the pick at 68%. The market is heavily on her side and her stronger hard-court return numbers give her a route into Tagger's service games, although Tagger's 8-2 recent record keeps this from looking completely one-sided.

Odds

Odds:EUUKUS