Rybakina's grass-court stats tower over Boisson

World number two Elena Rybakina begins her Wimbledon campaign against world number 154 Lois Boisson in the first round on Monday. The gulf in class, experience, and current form is vast. The data paints a picture of a significant mismatch, with the market expecting a swift victory for the Kazakh star.

Recent form reveals a severe contrast

Rybakina's 5-5 record from her last ten matches is respectable but she has won 79% of her service games. Boisson has won just one of her last ten matches and a meagre 56% of her service games. Rybakina's return game is also far superior, converting 38% of break points compared to Boisson's 33%, which points to a constant pressure on the Boisson serve.

Season stats underscore a mismatch

Across the whole season, Rybakina's record stands at a formidable 32-10, including two titles. This is a stark contrast to Boisson's 1-6 record. On grass specifically, Rybakina's service games won percentage sits at 85%, a monumental figure that should provide her with a near-unbreakable platform.

Market reflects huge gulf in class

Bookmakers have priced Rybakina at 1.03 to win the match, with Boisson out at 15. The first-set prices are equally one-sided, with Rybakina at 1.1 and Boisson at 7. This pricing implies a near-certainty that the world number two will progress without alarm.

The challenge facing the underdog

Boisson faces a monumental task against one of the game's most powerful hitters. Rybakina's serve is a major weapon, and her ability to win 85% of service games on grass this year gives her a huge margin for error. Boisson will need to serve exceptionally well to stay in sets, but her recent stats suggest this will be a tall order. The key battle will be on the return, where Boisson has struggled, winning only 20% of return games on grass.

Boisson L.

Rybakina E.

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