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Musetti v Collignon live stream info and Australian Open first-round preview

Analysis by Predict Tennis

Note: Written by humans, with the help of AI. Based on real statistical data.

Published: Jan 18, 2026(..)

Lorenzo Musetti meets Raphael Collignon in the Australian Open first round on hard courts on 20 Jan 2026, with a best-of-five test and live stream options to follow.

It is only the third week of the new season, so the numbers are still settling. Even so, the market has Musetti as a clear favourite, and this preview also explains how to watch or track the match live.

FINISHED

(RETIRED)

Musetti L.

2
1

Collignon R.

4-6

, 7-6

, 7-5

, 3-2

Early hard-court trends hint at tight holds

Musetti is 3-1 on hard courts so far this season, while Collignon is 4-2, but the sample is small and the calendar has only just turned serious in Melbourne.

Collignon's early hard-court figures include 93% of service games held and 32% of return games won, which points to a player who can protect serve and still create chances. Musetti's break-point conversion is 44% with 63% saved, a tidy mix that can matter when sets swing on a handful of pressure points.

Musetti arrives off a final run

Both players have gone 6-4 across their last 10 matches, and the recent underlying split is similarly even, with first sets won 50% of the time on each side. Musetti reached the final in Hong Kong last week, beating Andrey Rublev in the semi-finals before losing 2-0 to Alexander Bublik, and that run adds context to his status at this event.

Collignon has taken wins over Denis Shapovalov and Grigor Dimitrov in Brisbane and also lifted a qualifying event, but his last two outings ended in straight-set defeats, and his workload is lighter too at 7 hours 21 minutes across the last five matches compared with Musetti's 9 hours 45 minutes.

Watch Lorenzo Musetti v. Raphael Collignon Live Online

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Bookmakers make Musetti a clear favourite

Bookmakers price Musetti at 1.22 against Collignon at 4.33, and the first-set market also leans the same way at 1.4 versus 3. It fits the ranking gap, but the early-season caveat still hangs over any hard conclusions.

Musetti L.

Collignon R.

Win Percentage
60 %60 %
Aces per match
6.1 5
Double Faults per match
2.2 2.7
First Serve Points Won
66 %75 %
Second Serve Points Won
57 %52 %
Return Points Won
36 %35 %
Break Points Converted
38 %30 %
Break Points Saved
64 %60 %

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Best-of-five asks different questions

The gap in ranking suggests Musetti should have more control over the longer match format, yet Collignon's hard-court holding numbers indicate he can keep sets close if his serve lands well.

Recent return figures are modest on both sides, so a few break chances could decide long stretches, and Musetti's stronger break-point conversion this season stands out in that light. With the season only just starting, the steadier favourite tag may be real, but the match could still demand patience if early sets stay on serve.

Prediction

Australian Open ATPPICK

Lorenzo Musetti

79%
Predicted Winner

Raphael Collignon

Overall indicators tilt towards Lorenzo Musetti: the odds make him a strong favourite, and his recent final run in Hong Kong underlines the level he is carrying into Melbourne. Raphael Collignon's hard-court hold rate suggests he can make it competitive for spells, but his lower break-point conversion and the step up to a best-of-five opener point to a tougher path over time.

Odds

Odds:

To Win Match

Total Games

32.5

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ATP Rankings

Full List
  • 1Jannik Sinner
    14750
  • 2Carlos Alcaraz
    11960
  • 3Alexander Zverev
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  • 4Novak Djokovic
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  • 5Ben Shelton
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  • 6Felix Auger-Aliassime
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  • 7Alex de Minaur
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  • 8Daniil Medvedev
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  • 9Taylor Fritz
    3720
  • 10Alexander Bublik
    3320

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  • 5Amanda Anisimova
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  • 6Mirra Andreeva
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  • 7Coco Gauff
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  • 9Victoria Mboko
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  • 10Karolina Muchova
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