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Lorenzo Musetti meets Raphael Collignon in the Australian Open first round on hard courts on 20 Jan 2026, with a best-of-five test and live stream options to follow.
It is only the third week of the new season, so the numbers are still settling. Even so, the market has Musetti as a clear favourite, and this preview also explains how to watch or track the match live.FINISHED
(RETIRED)

Musetti L.

Collignon R.
4-6
, 7-6
, 7-5
, 3-2
Musetti is 3-1 on hard courts so far this season, while Collignon is 4-2, but the sample is small and the calendar has only just turned serious in Melbourne.
Collignon's early hard-court figures include 93% of service games held and 32% of return games won, which points to a player who can protect serve and still create chances. Musetti's break-point conversion is 44% with 63% saved, a tidy mix that can matter when sets swing on a handful of pressure points.Both players have gone 6-4 across their last 10 matches, and the recent underlying split is similarly even, with first sets won 50% of the time on each side. Musetti reached the final in Hong Kong last week, beating Andrey Rublev in the semi-finals before losing 2-0 to Alexander Bublik, and that run adds context to his status at this event.
Collignon has taken wins over Denis Shapovalov and Grigor Dimitrov in Brisbane and also lifted a qualifying event, but his last two outings ended in straight-set defeats, and his workload is lighter too at 7 hours 21 minutes across the last five matches compared with Musetti's 9 hours 45 minutes.By signing up at bet365, you gain access to one of the most reliable live streaming services available for this match and the rest of the tennis season. Access requires a funded account and is limited to users 18+. Be aware that geo-restrictions apply, so verify the schedule for your specific location.
Bookmakers price Musetti at 1.22 against Collignon at 4.33, and the first-set market also leans the same way at 1.4 versus 3. It fits the ranking gap, but the early-season caveat still hangs over any hard conclusions.

Musetti L.
Collignon R.

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The gap in ranking suggests Musetti should have more control over the longer match format, yet Collignon's hard-court holding numbers indicate he can keep sets close if his serve lands well.
Recent return figures are modest on both sides, so a few break chances could decide long stretches, and Musetti's stronger break-point conversion this season stands out in that light. With the season only just starting, the steadier favourite tag may be real, but the match could still demand patience if early sets stay on serve.Prediction
Lorenzo Musetti
Raphael Collignon
Overall indicators tilt towards Lorenzo Musetti: the odds make him a strong favourite, and his recent final run in Hong Kong underlines the level he is carrying into Melbourne. Raphael Collignon's hard-court hold rate suggests he can make it competitive for spells, but his lower break-point conversion and the step up to a best-of-five opener point to a tougher path over time.
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