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Lorenzo Musetti meets Taylor Fritz in the Australian Open last 16 on hard courts on 26 January, with best-of-five sets raising the stakes deep into the second week.
Fritz has the market on his side, but Musetti's recent results and his wider head-to-head lead keep this finely balanced. Below you'll find how to watch or follow the match live, alongside the key form lines that could decide it.FINISHED
Musetti L.
Fritz T.
6-2
, 7-5
, 6-4
Musetti leads the rivalry 3-2 overall, yet Fritz won their only hard-court meeting, a straight-sets result at the Finals in Turin (indoor) in November 2025. The broader series has been tight on the scoreboard, with total games level at 68-68, so small swings in momentum have tended to matter more than long stretches of dominance.
Musetti L.
Fritz T.
On hard courts this season Musetti is 6-1, and the underlying shape is clear: he is winning 28% of return games, which gives him more chances to turn sets than a pure hold-and-hope approach.
Fritz is 4-3 on the surface and holding serve well at 88%, but his 14% return-games rate suggests he may need to protect service dips because break openings have been rarer.By signing up at bet365, you gain access to one of the most reliable live streaming services available for this match and the rest of the tennis season. Access requires a funded account and is limited to users 18+. Be aware that geo-restrictions apply, so verify the schedule for your specific location.
Musetti is 7-3 across his last 10 and has won four of the last five, though that run has demanded time on court, including a five-set win over Tomas Machac in the previous round. Fritz is 5-5 in his last 10, but he arrives with three straight Australian Open wins and the lighter workload: 7 hours 46 minutes across his last three matches compared to Musetti's 10 hours 21 minutes.
Musetti L.
Fritz T.
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Bookmakers price Taylor Fritz at 1.73 against Lorenzo Musetti at 2.1; the first-set prices sit at 1.8 for Fritz and 2 for Musetti. It reflects a slight lean rather than a landslide, which fits the sense that second-week matches at the Australian Open tend to get complicated.
Fritz has been piling up free points recently, averaging 16.1 aces per match over his last 10, and his 88% service-games rate hints at a match plan built around short holds and scoreboard pressure. Musetti's counter is the steadier ability to create looks on return, and over the rivalry he has converted break chances at a higher clip in the averages (47% to 37%), which can matter in a five-set grind. With both men deep into week two, the question is whether Musetti's heavier recent minutes blunt that edge, or simply sharpen his tolerance for long spells.
Prediction
Taylor Fritz
Lorenzo Musetti
Overall indicators tilt slightly towards Taylor Fritz: the market makes him favourite and he has already beaten Lorenzo Musetti in their lone hard-court meeting, a useful reference point when margins are tight. Musetti's hard-court start to the season has been stronger and he is carrying more recent momentum, but the heavier time on court compared with Fritz adds a small note of caution in a best-of-five setting.
Odds
