The Best Tennis Stats.
Our new tennis stats site is live!
Madison Keys meets Xinyu Wang in the Berlin WTA first round on grass, a best-of-three encounter where the American holds a commanding 3-0 head-to-head lead.
The numbers paint a clear picture: Keys has won seven of her last ten matches, while Wang has lost seven. Add in odds that price Keys at 1.25, and the direction seems straightforward.Keys has won all three previous meetings, including a straight-sets victory at the 2023 Australian Open. Their head-to-head statistics highlight a clear serving gap: Keys has held serve 90% of the time against Wang, who has managed only 61%. Across those three matches, Keys converted 33% of her 11 break chances per match, while Wang managed 21% on just 4.7 opportunities.
Keys M.
Wang Xin.
Over the 2026 season so far, Keys holds a 19-9 record, winning 75% of her service games and 38% of return games. Wang is 16-14, with service and return numbers at 69% and 34% respectively. The American also saves break points more reliably, 63% to 56%, and converts more often, 47% to 41%.
Keys has won seven of her last ten matches, claiming the first set in 70% of those. Her service games have been strong at 78% and return games at 42%. Wang has lost seven of her last ten, winning only 30% of first sets. Her service hold rate drops to 64% and return games to 34%.
Bookmakers price Keys at 1.25 to win, with Wang at 4.0. For the first set, Keys is 1.3 and Wang 3.5. That implies a heavy favourite, though grass can occasionally narrow gaps.
Keys M.
Wang Xin.
The Best Tennis Stats.
Our new tennis stats site is live!
The match revolves around Keys' ability to dominate on serve. Wang has struggled to create break chances in their previous meetings, averaging only 4.7 per match. If Keys holds as comfortably as she has in the past, Wang will need a dramatic improvement on return. Recent form offers little encouragement for that.
Prediction
Madison Keys
Xinyu Wang
The head-to-head history, recent form and seasonal numbers all point towards Keys. Her serve has been a consistent weapon, and Wang has yet to find an answer across three meetings. While grass is a new surface for their rivalry, Keys' superior metrics on return and hold make her the clear favourite.
Odds
