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ATP/US Open ATP/1/64-finals

Rublev's return edge tests Cilic in New York opener

Analysis by Predict Tennis

Note: Written by humans, with the help of AI. Based on real statistical data.

Published: Aug 28, 2026(..)

Marin Cilic and Andrey Rublev meet in the first round of the US Open on 29 August. The hard-court contest is best-of-five sets. Rublev arrives as a strong favourite.

The rankings and recent hard-court data point firmly towards Rublev. Cilic has the serve to cause problems, but his recent first-set struggles leave little margin against a sharper returner.

Rublev's grip on hard-court meetings

Rublev leads the overall rivalry 4-3, but his advantage on hard courts is more striking. He has won four of five previous hard-court encounters, including a straight-sets win in Miami in 2021. Cilic has produced more aces in their meetings, yet Rublev has held serve far more effectively, winning 88% of his service games against Cilic.

Cilic M.

Rublev A.

Wins

3 4

First Serve Points Won

75 %77 %

Second Serve Points Won

49 %53 %

Return Points Won

33 %36 %

Break Points Converted

44 %37 %

Break Points Saved

63 %56 %

Return numbers separate the two on hard courts

Both men have served well on this surface this season. Cilic has held 87% of his service games, while Rublev sits at 86%. The difference is on return, where Rublev has won 22% of return games compared with Cilic's 17%. That small gap tends to grow over a best-of-five match.

Rublev's first-set control stands out

Rublev has won six of his last ten matches, while Cilic has managed just three wins in the same stretch. Rublev has taken the opening set in 70% of those matches. Cilic's first-set rate is only 30%. A slow start would make an already difficult task much harder.

Bookmakers expect a one-sided opener

Rublev is priced at 1.22 against Cilic at 4.33. The first-set market is similarly wide at 1.40 against 3.00. The odds reflect both the ranking gap and the hard-court history between these two.

Cilic M.

Rublev A.

Win Percentage

30 %60 %

Titles

0 1

Aces per match

6.1 9.7

Double Faults per match

3.3 3.3

First Serve Points Won

70 %76 %

Second Serve Points Won

45 %56 %

Return Points Won

33 %36 %

Break Points Converted

33 %34 %

Break Points Saved

49 %64 %

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Return pressure meets a fading first-set threat

Rublev's surface record, return efficiency and recent first-set numbers all line up in his favour. Cilic's serve remains a weapon, but his inability to win early sets against top opposition reduces his chances. The five-set format gives Cilic room to recover, yet the overall gap in hard-court form is hard to close.

Prediction

US Open ATPPICK

Andrey Rublev

78%

Predicted Winner

Marin Cilic

Rublev's superior hard-court head-to-head record and stronger return numbers tilt this clearly in his direction. Cilic can hold serve in bursts, but his recent first-set problems make a fast Rublev opening likely. The ranking and recent form gaps reinforce the lean towards Rublev.

Odds

Odds:EUUKUS