Grass-court form favours Medvedev over veteran Cilic

Daniil Medvedev opens his Wimbledon campaign against Marin Cilic in the opening round on 27 June, stepping onto the grass for a best-of-five clash. The Russian holds a clear head-to-head advantage. Yet the veteran Croatian has shown enough fight lately to suggest this could be a testing opener.

FINISHED

Cilic M.

0

3

Medvedev D.

1-6

, 2-6

, 4-6

Grass numbers favour the higher seed

Medvedev boasts a solid 4-2 record on grass this season. He is winning 85% of his service games and saving 68% of break points. Cilic sits at 2-2 with a respectable 73% service hold rate, but the Russian's superior form gives him a clear edge.

Medvedev holds firm grass-court grip

Medvedev has won both previous grass-court meetings. This includes a hard-fought 2-1 victory just two weeks ago in Hertogenbosch. The Russian also claimed their 2021 Wimbledon encounter in five sets, proving he knows exactly how to handle the veteran's heavy serve on this surface.

Cilic M.

Medvedev D.

Wins

1 3

First Serve Points Won

76 %74 %

Second Serve Points Won

46 %51 %

Return Points Won

35 %36 %

Break Points Converted

60 %50 %

Break Points Saved

50 %40 %

Recent momentum swings towards Medvedev

Over their last ten matches across all surfaces, Medvedev holds a 6-4 record. Cilic trails with a 4-6 tally. The Russian has been particularly strong in the first set recently, whereas the Croatian has struggled to start matches quickly and won just 10% of opening frames.

Bookmakers heavily back the Russian

Bookmakers heavily back the higher seed. They price Medvedev at 1.25 against Cilic at 4.0. First-set odds also lean the favourite's way, with the Russian at 1.4 and his opponent at 3.0.

Cilic M.

Medvedev D.

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First-strike serving meets relentless returning

This matchup hinges on the opening strikes. Cilic must use his heavy first serve to keep the Russian at bay. Medvedev's elite return game will test the veteran's legs, especially given the slightly heavier court time he has accumulated recently.

Prediction

Odds