Kostyuk's recent dominance leaves Pegula facing a tricky rematch

Pegula leads their rivalry 4-3 overall and 4-2 on hard courts, but Kostyuk has won their last two encounters. The Ukrainian prevailed in straight sets at Brisbane in January before repeating that result on clay at Madrid on 26 April.

Across their seven meetings, Pegula has won 52% of second-serve points compared with Kostyuk's 43%, highlighting a potential pressure point despite the recent reversal in results.

Pegula's 34-10 hard-court record this season provides a stronger foundation than Kostyuk's 14-11 return. The American has held 76% of her service games against Kostyuk's 73%, while also winning slightly more return games, 37% to 35%. Those advantages are modest individually, but their consistency across a much larger winning record strengthens Pegula's case.

Kostyuk has lost her last six matches and holds a 4-6 record across her previous 10 appearances. Pegula stands at 6-4 over the same span, although she has also suffered three consecutive defeats following her US Open semi-final appearance. Their recent service-game success is virtually identical, but Pegula's 35% return-game win rate against Kostyuk's 31% offers a potentially important distinction.

Bookmakers price Pegula at 1.56 to win the match, with Kostyuk at 2.43. The first-set market follows a similar pattern, placing the American at 1.61 against 2.28 for the Ukrainian. Those prices reflect Pegula's stronger broader record while leaving room for the uncertainty created by their recent meetings.

Pegula's stronger hard-court results and slightly better recent return figures suggest she can apply sustained pressure, particularly when Kostyuk relies on her second serve.

However, Kostyuk's two straight-set victories in this rivalry demonstrate that the historical balance is not decisive. The Ukrainian's six-match losing sequence remains the larger concern, while Pegula's own recent defeats prevent this from looking entirely straightforward.