Clay form gives Kostyuk edge over Selekhmeteva

Marta Kostyuk faces Oksana Selekhmeteva in the French Open first round, a best-of-three clay-court clash where the world number 15 starts as heavy favourite.

Kostyuk arrives unbeaten in 11 clay matches this season. Selekhmeteva, ranked 89th, has won just three of her past 10, creating a form gap that shapes expectations for this Roland Garros opener.

Kostyuk's flawless clay record this season

Kostyuk has not lost a clay-court match this year, claiming two WTA titles along the way. She wins 73% of service games and 61% of returns on clay—numbers that signal control. Selekhmeteva's 3-6 clay record tells a different story. Break-point conversion sits at 40%, with just 47% of break points saved.

Last-10 momentum heavily favours Kostyuk

The Ukrainian has won all 10 of her most recent matches. She takes 90% of first sets and has never lost a deciding set in that span. Selekhmeteva has managed only three wins in her last 10. A 10% first-set win rate suggests slow starts could prove costly.

Bookmakers price a clear favourite

The market reflects the form gap, with Kostyuk at 1.07 against Selekhmeteva's 9.00. First-set odds of 1.14 versus 5.5 point to expectations of an early Kostyuk lead. Clay can still produce extended rallies. But the pricing leaves little room for doubt.

Serve stability meets return pressure

Kostyuk's ability to hold serve on clay, combined with her 60% return games won in recent play, creates a dual threat. Selekhmeteva's 53% service games won may struggle to counter that pressure. With no head-to-head history to draw on, the match likely hinges on whether the underdog can disrupt the favourite's rhythm early. That is a tall order.

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