The Best Tennis Stats.
Our new tennis stats site is live!
Frances Tiafoe opens his US Open campaign against Martin Damm in a best-of-five first-round clash on the hard courts, carrying heavy favourite status into the New York test. The American holds a distinct edge in both recent form and head-to-head history, having defeated Damm in straight sets at this same tournament last year. Bookmakers reflect this gap, pricing Tiafoe as the overwhelming choice to advance.
Tiafoe leads the head-to-head 1-0, securing a 3-1 victory in the second round of the 2025 US Open. In that encounter, the American was flawless on serve, winning 100 per cent of his service games while converting a third of his break point opportunities. Damm struggled to find a foothold, failing to convert any of his three break chances.
Damm M.
Tiafoe F.
Over the current hard-court season, Tiafoe boasts a superior 21-10 record compared to Damm's 16-12. While Damm holds a slight advantage in service games won at 88 per cent, Tiafoe’s ability to apply pressure is evident. The world number 23 wins 22 per cent of his return games on the surface, significantly outpacing Damm's 14 per cent.
Tiafoe enters New York with strong momentum, having won five consecutive matches before falling in the Cincinnati final. He sits at 6-4 in his last ten outings. Damm presents a more mixed picture with a 5-5 record over the same stretch, including a recent defeat in Winston-Salem.
The betting market leaves little room for doubt regarding the expected outcome. Tiafoe is priced at a decisive 1.2 to claim the match, while Damm sits at 4.5. First-set odds similarly favour the higher-ranked player at 1.36.
Damm M.
Tiafoe F.
The Best Tennis Stats.
Our new tennis stats site is live!
The contrast in break-point conversion is stark. Tiafoe converts 46 per cent of his break points this season, whereas Damm manages just 33 per cent. Combined with Tiafoe's familiarity with the stage and a slightly lighter recent workload of five hours and 30 minutes over his last three matches, the American is well positioned to control the tempo.
Prediction
Frances Tiafoe
Martin Damm
Multiple indicators point firmly towards a Tiafoe victory. His superior return game, dominant head-to-head record at this specific tournament, and strong recent momentum in Cincinnati create a compelling case. While Damm can hold serve reliably, the American's ability to generate and convert break-point opportunities should prove decisive in a best-of-five format.
Odds
