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ATP/Wimbledon ATP/1/32-finals

Fils backed by odds before Berrettini clash

Analysis by Predict Tennis

Note: Written by humans, with the help of AI. Based on real statistical data.

Published: Jul 1, 2026(..)

Matteo Berrettini faces Arthur Fils in the Wimbledon ATP 1/32-finals on grass on 2 July, with the match played over best of five sets.

The market leans clearly towards Fils, but the grass sample is still thin. Berrettini's serve remains a major factor, while Fils brings stronger recent results and a sharper return profile.

Fils holds the only meeting

Fils leads the rivalry 1-0 after their Tokyo ATP meeting on hard court in September 2024, when Berrettini retired with the score at 0-1 in sets. The numbers from that match were tight, with both players winning 83% of service games, so the past result gives Fils a small edge rather than a firm guide.

Berrettini M.

Fils A.

Wins

0 1

First Serve Points Won

62 %85 %

Second Serve Points Won

53 %42 %

Return Points Won

36 %41 %

Break Points Converted

33 %33 %

Break Points Saved

67 %67 %

Grass return numbers favour Fils

Both players are 1-0 on grass this season, but the early figures point in different directions. Berrettini has held 96% of service games, which shows how hard he remains to break, while Fils has won 43% of return games and converted 46% of break chances, giving him more ways to pressure the match.

Recent form gives Fils the cleaner line

Berrettini is 6-4 across his last 10 matches and has just opened Wimbledon with a four-set win over Stan Wawrinka. Fils is 7-3 in his recent run, reached the Barcelona final, and arrived here with a straight-sets win over Raphael Collignon. That is a stronger recent base.

Bookmakers side with Fils

Bookmakers price Fils at 1.5 against Berrettini at 2.63, while the first-set prices are 1.57 and 2.38. That suggests the market expects Fils to start slightly stronger, though Berrettini's serve keeps the gap from feeling one-sided.

Berrettini M.

Fils A.

Win Percentage

60 %80 %

Titles

0 1

Aces per match

9.1 2.9

Double Faults per match

2.4 2.1

First Serve Points Won

77 %77 %

Second Serve Points Won

55 %55 %

Return Points Won

33 %38 %

Break Points Converted

39 %36 %

Break Points Saved

64 %72 %

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Serve power meets return pressure

The match looks built around Berrettini's hold rate against Fils' ability to create return games. Berrettini has the bigger ace profile in recent matches, averaging 9.1 aces, but Fils has matched him at 87% of service games won and has returned more effectively. Workload also matters a little, with Berrettini logging 16 hours and 17 minutes across his last five matches compared with 4 hours and 36 minutes for Fils.

Prediction

Wimbledon ATPPICK

Arthur Fils

62%

Predicted Winner

Matteo Berrettini

The data points towards Fils, mainly because the market, recent form and return numbers all lean his way. Berrettini's serve on grass is a real danger, so this is not a simple pick, but Fils looks slightly better placed to create enough pressure over best of five sets.

Odds

Odds:EUUKUS