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Matteo Berrettini faces Stan Wawrinka in the US Open ATP round of 128 on 30 August, with the hard-court contest played over best-of-five sets.
The market gives Berrettini a clear edge, and his recent results support that view. Their only previous meeting was much tighter than the four-set score suggests, however, with serve dominating throughout.Berrettini leads the rivalry 1-0 after beating Wawrinka in four sets at Wimbledon on 29 June. That match was extremely tight despite the scoreline: they played four tiebreaks and 52 games, while both men held 96% of their service games. Berrettini's 29 aces to Wawrinka's 18 underline how difficult it was for either player to make progress on return.
Berrettini M.
Wawrinka S.
Berrettini is 4-4 on hard courts this season, while Wawrinka has a larger 7-9 sample. The more important gap comes on return: Berrettini has won 14% of return games compared with 8% for Wawrinka, while also converting break points more often, 30% to 21%. Those small advantages could matter when both players are protecting serve well.
Berrettini has won six of his last 10 matches, compared with two wins for Wawrinka. He has also held serve in 88% of games over that stretch, five percentage points higher than Wawrinka, while maintaining a small edge on return. Neither has been especially strong at starting quickly, with both winning the first set in 30% of those matches.
Bookmakers price Berrettini at 1.29 against Wawrinka at 3.75, making the Italian a clear favourite. The first-set market follows the same pattern at 1.44 against 2.75.
Berrettini M.
Wawrinka S.
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The previous meeting showed that long stretches without breaks are possible, so a few return games could decide each set. Berrettini brings the better recent record and stronger return numbers, while the market also sits firmly on his side. Wawrinka's hard-court workload is broader, but his current results give him less support coming into this match.
Prediction
Matteo Berrettini
Stan Wawrinka
The overall indicators favour Matteo Berrettini. His 6-4 recent record is clearly stronger, his hard-court return numbers offer more pressure, and the market makes him a clear favourite, although their close Wimbledon meeting suggests Stan Wawrinka can still keep individual sets tight.
Odds
