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Mirra Andreeva faces Eva Lys in the US Open WTA 1/32-finals on 3 September, with their hard-court meeting played over the best of three sets.
The gap between them is clear in both the season numbers and the market. Andreeva has been much stronger on hard courts and also comes into the match with the better recent record, while Lys needs to find more stability on serve to narrow that difference.Andreeva has gone 18-8 on hard courts this season, compared with 3-6 for Lys. The bigger difference comes on serve: Andreeva has held in 75% of service games, while Lys is at 59%, giving the higher-ranked player a stronger base from which to control sets.
The last 10 matches also favour Andreeva, who is 6-4 while Lys is 3-7. Andreeva has won 76% of her service games in that spell and taken the first set in 80% of matches, which matters against an opponent whose recent service hold rate is only 62%.
Bookmakers price Andreeva at 1.1 against Lys at 7, with first-set prices of 1.17 and 5 respectively. Those numbers make the market view unusually clear and are consistent with the wider form gap.
Lys has remained reasonably active on return, but Andreeva combines a stronger serve with slightly better return numbers on hard courts. She also arrives with the lighter recent workload, having spent 6 hours 52 minutes on court across her last five matches compared with 8 hours 33 minutes for Lys. That does not decide the contest by itself, but it adds another small edge to an already strong case.
Andreeva M.
Lys E.
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Prediction
Mirra Andreeva
Eva Lys
The overall indicators point clearly towards Mirra Andreeva. Her stronger hard-court record and recent form are backed by a large market advantage, while her service numbers should make it difficult for Eva Lys to create enough pressure across three sets.
Odds
