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WTA/US Open WTA/1/64-finals

Andreeva's return edge strengthens case for strong US Open start

Analysis by Predict Tennis

Note: Written by humans, with the help of AI. Based on real statistical data.

Published: Aug 28, 2026(..)

Mirra Andreeva faces Janice Tjen in the US Open WTA 1/64-finals on 30 August, with the hard-court match played over the best of three sets.

The numbers lean heavily towards Andreeva. Her stronger hard-court record and return game are backed by a clear market gap, while she also won their only previous meeting earlier this month.

FINISHED

Andreeva M.

Tjen J.

6-2

, 6-2

Andreeva took control of their first meeting

Andreeva leads the rivalry 1-0 after beating Tjen in straight sets in Cincinnati on 18 August, winning 13 games to seven despite one set reaching a tie-break. She held every service game in that match and created 10 break-point chances, a pattern that suggests Tjen may again spend plenty of time under pressure.

Andreeva M.

Tjen J.

Wins

1 0

First Serve Points Won

86 %59 %

Second Serve Points Won

54 %52 %

Return Points Won

43 %27 %

Break Points Converted

30 %0 %

Break Points Saved

100 %70 %

Hard-court numbers favour Andreeva

Andreeva is 17-8 on hard courts this season, compared with Tjen's 8-13 record. The bigger difference comes on return: Andreeva has won 44% of return games on the surface against Tjen's 25%, giving her more ways to take control when rallies begin on her opponent's serve.

Recent form keeps the gap clear

Andreeva has won six of her last 10 matches, while Tjen has won four. Andreeva has also taken the opening set in 80% of that recent sample and won 38% of return games, compared with 50% and 24% respectively for Tjen. That makes a fast start from the favourite easier to support.

Bookmakers expect a one-sided contest

Bookmakers price Andreeva at 1.13 against Tjen at 6.00, with first-set prices of 1.22 and 4.33. The market therefore sees Andreeva as a strong favourite both across the match and from the opening set.

Andreeva M.

Tjen J.

Win Percentage

60 %40 %

Titles

1 0

Aces per match

3.7 4.6

Double Faults per match

3.4 4.3

First Serve Points Won

68 %67 %

Second Serve Points Won

47 %46 %

Return Points Won

45 %40 %

Break Points Converted

42 %34 %

Break Points Saved

63 %53 %

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Return pressure may decide the match

The clearest route for Andreeva is sustained pressure on Tjen's serve, where the season and recent numbers both favour the world number five. Tjen has also spent 11 hours and 28 minutes on court across her last five matches, compared with Andreeva's six hours and 38 minutes. There is no back-to-back flag for either player, but Tjen arrives with the heavier recent workload.

Prediction

US Open WTAPICK

Mirra Andreeva

84%

Predicted Winner

Janice Tjen

The overall indicators point strongly towards Mirra Andreeva. Her superior hard-court record and return numbers are supported by the recent head-to-head result and a very clear gap in the betting market, although one previous meeting is still a small rivalry sample.

Odds

Odds:EUUKUS