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WTA/Toronto WTA/1/32-finals

Andreeva’s return pressure stands out before Toronto clash

Analysis by Predict Tennis

Note: Written by humans, with the help of AI. Based on real statistical data.

Published: Aug 4, 2026(..)

Mirra Andreeva faces Karolina Pliskova in the Toronto WTA last 32 on 6 August, with a hard-court place at stake in this best-of-three contest. The rankings and recent results favour Andreeva.

She also won their only previous meeting in straight sets. Pliskova has enough serving strength to keep stretches close, but the wider numbers show a clear gap in return pressure and first-set form.

Andreeva controlled their first meeting

Andreeva leads the rivalry 1-0 after a 2-0 win in Cincinnati on 15 August 2024, taking 12 games to Pliskova’s five. She held every service game and created 13 break-point chances, while Pliskova produced 12 double faults. It is only one match, but the pattern was decisive.

Andreeva M.

Pliskova Ka.

Wins

1 0

First Serve Points Won

80 %61 %

Second Serve Points Won

81 %43 %

Return Points Won

47 %20 %

Break Points Converted

31 %0 %

Break Points Saved

0 %69 %

Hard-court balance favours Andreeva

Andreeva has built a 14-6 hard-court record this season, compared with Pliskova’s 5-3 mark. More importantly, she has won 74% of her service games and 45% of her return games, giving her a stronger base on both sides of the ball. Pliskova’s figures stand at 69% and 35%.

Recent starts widen the gap

Andreeva has won eight of her last 10 matches, while Pliskova has split hers evenly. The younger favourite has also taken the opening set in 80% of those contests, twice Pliskova’s rate. That early control matters in a match where the first-set market is already strongly one-sided.

Market expects Andreeva control

Bookmakers price Andreeva at 1.29 against Pliskova at 3.75, with first-set prices of 1.33 and 3.4. Those odds reflect the broad gap in ranking, recent results and return performance.

Andreeva M.

Pliskova Ka.

Win Percentage

80 %70 %

Titles

1 0

Aces per match

2.7 3.7

Double Faults per match

3 5.9

First Serve Points Won

68 %66 %

Second Serve Points Won

50 %43 %

Return Points Won

48 %42 %

Break Points Converted

48 %52 %

Break Points Saved

69 %54 %

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Pliskova must protect her serve

Pliskova’s best route is to hold comfortably and prevent Andreeva from building repeated pressure on second serve. That looks difficult given the return numbers and their previous meeting. Andreeva has carried almost two hours more court time across her last five matches, although neither player enters on a back-to-back schedule.

Prediction

Toronto WTAPICK

Mirra Andreeva

78%

Predicted Winner

Karolina Pliskova

The wider indicators point clearly towards Mirra Andreeva. Her stronger hard-court return record, 8-2 recent run and straight-sets win in their only previous meeting support the market view, although Karolina Pliskova’s serve may keep parts of the match competitive.

Odds

Odds:EUUKUS