Will Sinner or Alcaraz Win the US Open?

Unsplash
Published: August 26, 2025
Posted in: News
There will be, as ever, incredible competition for the men’s singles title at this year’s US Open. The tournament begins on August 24th and the winner will be determined on September 7th. Tennis fans are eagerly anticipating the final two weeks of the Grand Slam season.
The US Open will be the final major of 2025
The field for the men’s singles competition is full of elite talent but most people believe that the ultimate champion will be one of two players. That narrow choice is backed up by the statistics. The last seven majors have been shared by just two players – Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz. If you are thinking of checking out the US Open tennis betting markets, it feels like you should not really be looking any further than one of those two for this year’s winner.In this article, we will be looking at how the year has gone for both Sinner and Alcaraz, and what we might expect from the 2025 US Open men’s singles. This event is always one of the most exciting on the calendar, and these two have almost guaranteed that this year’s tournament will be another classic.
Sinner Illness
A huge factor in whether either of these two superstars will win the US Open men’s singles this year is the extent of Jannik Sinner’s illness. He was forced to retire from the highly anticipated Cincinnati Open final against Carlos Alcaraz after complaining of flu-like symptoms. He had bravely stepped onto the court but was obviously not at full strength, losing all of the first five games.The Italian has stated that he still plans to play at the US Open – including in the high-profile mixed doubles competition – but he will surely not be at the top of his game. However, it could be argued that he will now be able to enjoy some unscheduled downtime and come back raring to go for the last major of the year.
Head-to-Head
Although Sinner is the current number one-ranked men’s singles player, it is Alcaraz who has enjoyed the majority of the games between the two. They have met on 14 occasions, with the Spaniard winning nine times. He also has the lead in Grand Slam meetings and when they have both gotten to the final of an event.In the early days of what will surely end up being an era-defining rivalry, everything was very evenly balanced, with the two trading victories – and Sinner actually winning the first final between the pair at the Croatia Open in 2022. But recently, it has been Alcaraz who has triumphed more regularly. Sinner’s Wimbledon final victory was the first time he had beaten Alcaraz in six attempts. The Spaniard obviously won the most recent meeting.
Alcaraz in 2025
Alcaraz began the year disappointingly, crashing out of the Australian Open at the quarterfinal stage. There had been hope that he would become the youngest man to complete the Career Grand Slam but he was unable to beat Novak Djokovic. His season from there has been largely successful, however.Alcaraz has been successful on all surfaces and added a whole host of firsts when it comes to individual ATP Tour titles. He became only the second man in the Open era to win all five of his first five majors finals and picked up his second successive French Open title. He was unable to beat Sinner at Wimbledon but can now count the Cincinnati Open as a success, even though he benefited from Sinner’s illness. Overall, he has a 54-6 season record and has won six titles, including one major.

The fans will be hoping for a Sinner-Alcaraz final
Unsplash
Sinner in 2025
Sinner’s season record looks very different from that of his rival, thanks largely to a WADA suspension where he was forced to sit out of competition from February to May. Before that ban took effect, he had successfully defended his Australian Open in January, winning his second major in a row.After his break, he then made it all the way to the finals of both the Italian and French Opens, but lost to Alcaraz on both occasions. Sinner then crashed out of the Halle Open in Germany in the second round before storming back at Wimbledon to win his first major on grass. He was also able to gain some revenge by beating Alcaraz in four sets.Like Alcaraz, Sinner withdrew from the Canadian Open and then experienced his unfortunate illness in Cincinnati. His overall season record currently sits at 31-4, with two calendar titles – both majors.
US Open Final Clash
There will be many tennis fans worried that Jannik Sinner will now not be able to compete at the US Open. He only dropped two sets throughout the entire 2024 competition and was considered the favorite to retain his title this year. That would be his third major of the year and significantly change the head-to-head statistics between these two legends.Even if Sinner is fit to compete, there is the chance that another player will come through and feature in the US Open men’s singles final, of course. But it is always difficult to see either of these two being beaten when they are in their best form.Alcaraz will dearly want to finish the year off on a high, potentially beating a fully fit Sinner in the final. At the same time, his great Italian rival will be desperate to shrug off his current illness and come back in winning style at Flushing Meadows. For all the latest twists and turns, it would not be a surprise if one of these two finished up with the US Open title this year.