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Nicolai Budkov Kjaer meets Rafael Jodar at the Next Gen Finals in Jeddah on 17 December, an indoor hard-court contest scheduled as a best-of-five. It is a matchup that blends contrasting profiles and recent momentum.
This preview breaks down the form lines and the market view, and it also sets out where to watch and how to follow the match live. Jodar arrives with the clearer recent run, while Budkov Kjaer leans on steadier holding numbers on hard courts.FINISHED
Budkov Kjaer N.
Jodar R.
4-1
, 4-2
, 1-4
, 4-2
On hard courts this season, Rafael Jodar has the bigger win base at 37–11, while Nicolai Budkov Kjaer is 23–10. The split in style is clear in the numbers: Budkov Kjaer wins 81% of service games on the surface, but Jodar bites harder on return at 36% of return games won, which can turn sets quickly. Both sit on three Challenger titles apiece, so the difference is less about medals and more about where pressure lands in rallies.
The last 10 matches tilt strongly towards Jodar at 9–1, compared to Budkov Kjaer’s 5–5, and the early-set numbers underline why that matters: Jodar has won 70% of first sets in that spell, Budkov Kjaer 30%. Budkov Kjaer did steady things with a win in Jeddah on 17 December, but the broader run shows a swing from four straight wins to four straight losses before that. Both come in with back-to-back scheduling flags, and the workload is similar over the last three matches at about four and a half hours each, so sharp starts could be decisive.
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Bookmakers price Rafael Jodar at 1.67 against Nicolai Budkov Kjaer at 2.2; first-set prices are 1.73 vs 2.1. That framing reflects the stronger recent record, even with some surface metrics pointing the other way.
Budkov Kjaer N.
Jodar R.
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This looks like a simple tug-of-war: Budkov Kjaer’s hard-court hold rate is the natural stabiliser, while Jodar’s season-long return numbers suggest more frequent cracks in service games. Recent trends add another layer, because Jodar has combined a strong return rate in the last 10 with cleaner serving, averaging fewer double faults per match. If Budkov Kjaer keeps first delivery patterns tight, the match can stay close, but Jodar’s ability to win more return games is the lever that can separate them.
Prediction
Rafael Jodar
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
Overall indicators tilt towards Rafael Jodar: the market makes him favourite at 1.67 and his last-10 record of 9–1 comes with a stronger return profile. Nicolai Budkov Kjaer’s hard-court holding numbers are the counterweight, so it may not be straightforward, but Jodar’s season-long ability to win more return games gives him a narrow edge.
Odds
