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Felix Auger-Aliassime begins his Australian Open ATP campaign against Nuno Borges on hard courts on 18 Jan 2026, with the opening-round match scheduled as a best-of-five.
With the 2026 season only in its third week, the numbers are still settling, but the early signals are clear: Auger-Aliassime arrives as the higher-ranked player and the bookmakers' choice. This preview also explains how to watch or follow the match live, alongside the key form and match-up angles.FINISHED
(RETIRED)

Borges N.

Auger-Aliassime F.
3-6
, 6-4
, 6-4
, 0-0
They have met once, and Auger-Aliassime leads 1-0 after a 2-1 win in Dubai on 26 Feb 2025. That match went the distance and stretched to 31 games, a reminder that Borges has already pushed him deep on a hard court. The serve-return profile was tight too, but Auger-Aliassime held more often (88% to 80%) and won a bigger share behind both first and second serve.

Borges N.
Auger-Aliassime F.

On hard courts this season Borges is 3-2, while Auger-Aliassime is 1-1, a small sample that fits the wider sense of a campaign only just getting going. Still, Borges' return numbers stand out at 50% of return games won, which points to frequent pressure even when matches tighten. His average match length on tour this year has been 23.2 games, so patience may matter in a five-set format.
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Across the last 10 matches Auger-Aliassime is 6-4 and Borges is 5-5, with both posting an identical 86% rate of service games held. First sets have been level as well, at 40% won for each, so fast starts have not been a clear separator. The difference has come late: Auger-Aliassime has won 100% of deciding sets in that spell, while Borges sits at 67%.

Borges N.
Auger-Aliassime F.

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Bookmakers price Auger-Aliassime at 1.29 against Borges at 3.75; first-set prices are 1.44 versus 2.75. The market is pointing firmly towards the higher-ranked player, even with the season still in its early weeks.
Auger-Aliassime's ranking edge is stark, at world No 7 against No 46, and the lone previous meeting suggests he can win the key points without needing a quick match. Borges, though, has shown more bite on return in the early hard-court numbers, and that offers a pathway to keep sets close if he can sustain it over time.
Workload is similar rather than lopsided: Borges has played 5 hours 19 minutes across his last three matches, while Auger-Aliassime is at 4 hours 21 minutes, and both come in without a back-to-back run. In week three of a new season, that balance could matter if this one drifts long.Prediction
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Nuno Borges
Overall indicators tilt towards Felix Auger-Aliassime, with the market heavily in his favour and the ranking gap reinforcing that view. He also owns the only head-to-head win, and the five-set setting suits a player who has edged tight moments in the recent numbers. Borges' early-season return strength is a clear caution, though, and it is the most plausible route to turning this into a longer, closer match.
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