Borges backed to beat Kouame in Bastad

Analysis by Predict Tennis

Note: Written by humans, with the help of AI. Based on real statistical data.

Published: Jul 12, 2026(..)

Nuno Borges faces Moise Kouame in the Bastad ATP last 16 on 13 July, with the clay-court match played over the best of three sets.

Borges enters as the clear favourite, backed by stronger clay results, steadier recent serving and a wide ranking advantage. Kouame has shown he can trouble established opponents, but his recent numbers leave little room for error.

Clay numbers favour Borges

Borges has won six of his 13 clay matches this season, while Kouame stands at two wins from eight. The gap is also clear within service games, with Borges holding 81% compared with Kouame's 73%, giving the favourite a more reliable base on this surface.

Borges has also won 21% of his return games, five points more than Kouame. Neither record is dominant, but Borges has been stronger in both main areas.

Recent serving widens the gap

Borges has split his last 10 matches evenly, including a semi-final run in Mallorca, while Kouame has lost seven of his last 10. The more important difference comes on serve: Borges has held in 87% of recent service games, compared with 74% for Kouame.

Kouame has averaged 5.8 double faults per match across that period. Borges has averaged only one, so loose service games could quickly put the underdog under pressure.

Market expects Borges control

Bookmakers price Borges at 1.2 against Kouame at 4.5, making the world number 53 a strong favourite over the player ranked 216th. The first-set prices tell a similar story, with Borges at 1.29 and Kouame at 3.75.

Early pressure could prove decisive

Borges has won the opening set in 60% of his last 10 matches, twice Kouame's rate. That matters because Kouame's lower hold percentage and higher double-fault count could leave him chasing the score from an early stage.

Kouame has produced notable wins during the clay season, including victories over Marin Cilic and Daniel Vallejo at the French Open. Even so, Borges has the steadier serve, the stronger surface figures and a clearer route to controlling the match.

Borges N.

Kouame M.

Win Percentage

50 %30 %

Aces per match

6.6 5.1

Double Faults per match

1 5.8

First Serve Points Won

75 %68 %

Second Serve Points Won

53 %49 %

Return Points Won

34 %35 %

Break Points Converted

35 %35 %

Break Points Saved

66 %65 %

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Prediction

Bastad ATPPICK

Nuno Borges

79%

Predicted Winner

Moise Kouame

The broader indicators point firmly towards Nuno Borges. His stronger clay record, much higher recent hold rate and clear market support outweigh Kouame's occasional strong results, although the favourite will still need to handle the change back from grass.

Odds

Odds:EUUKUS