Return numbers favour Borges against Atmane

Analysis by Predict Tennis

Note: Written by humans, with the help of AI. Based on real statistical data.

Published: Jun 7, 2026(..)

Nuno Borges faces Terence Atmane in the Hertogenbosch ATP 1/16-finals on 8 June, with grass and best-of-three conditions framing a tight top-60 meeting.

The rankings are close, but the wider numbers lean towards Borges. He has the stronger market position, a better recent record, and a clearer return edge, while neither player brings a meaningful grass-season sample into this match.

FINISHED

Borges N.

Atmane T.

6-4

, 6-4

No grass record to separate them

Neither Borges nor Atmane has a recorded grass win or loss in the surface sample provided, so the broader season picture has to carry more weight. Borges is 13-17 overall this season, compared with Atmane's 11-16, and his 83% service games won sits just above Atmane's 81%. That is a small gap, but it matters when the surface may reward holding serve.

Borges brings steadier recent form

Borges has split his last 10 matches at 5-5, while Atmane is 3-7 across his last nine listed matches. Atmane has still served well enough, averaging 6.7 aces per match, but his 12% return games won is a concern against a player holding serve at 83% recently. Borges also arrives after two wins in his last three matches.

Bookmakers make Borges the clear favourite

Bookmakers price Borges at 1.5 against Atmane at 2.63, with first-set prices of 1.57 and 2.38. That market view is not huge, but it does give Borges a clear starting edge in a match where the rankings are almost level.

Return gap could be decisive

The key split is not really the serve. Both players have held serve at a similar recent rate, but Borges has been breaking more often, winning 23% of return games compared with Atmane's 12%. Atmane also carries a slightly heavier recent workload, with 11 hours and 31 minutes across his last five matches, so Borges has the cleaner mix of price, form and pressure numbers.

Borges N.

Atmane T.

Win Percentage

50 %30 %

Aces per match

6 6.4

Double Faults per match

2.8 2.2

First Serve Points Won

72 %73 %

Second Serve Points Won

51 %52 %

Return Points Won

38 %30 %

Break Points Converted

40 %33 %

Break Points Saved

70 %59 %

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Prediction

Hertogenbosch ATPPICK

Nuno Borges

62%

Predicted Winner

Terence Atmane

The data points towards Borges, mainly because the market favours him and his recent return numbers are clearly stronger. Atmane can keep this close if his serve lands well, but Borges has the steadier recent record and the better route to creating breaks.

Odds

Odds:EUUKUS