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Pablo Carreno-Busta and Luca Nardi meet on the hard courts of Dubai on 22 February in the ATP qualifying final, a best-of-three shootout for a main-draw place.
Bookmakers make Carreno-Busta a narrow favourite, but Nardi arrives with the stronger recent record, so momentum and a quick start could swing it. You'll also find how to follow the match live, alongside the key angles shaping the match-up.FINISHED
Carreno-Busta P.
Nardi L.
6-7
, 6-4
, 7-6
Their sole previous match came in Hamburg in July 2022 on clay, when Carreno-Busta beat Nardi 2-0. It was one-way on the scoreboard, with Carreno-Busta winning 12 games to three and never needing a deciding set, which hints at his ability to impose patterns when he gets control early.
Carreno-Busta P.
Nardi L.
On hard courts this season, Carreno-Busta is 6-6 while Nardi is 8-6, so there is little to split them on volume alone. Carreno-Busta has held serve at 80% and converted 42% of break points, but Nardi's return figures are slightly stronger at 25% and his break-point saving rate rounds to 59%, suggesting he can absorb pressure and turn sets with one or two key games.
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Across the last 10 matches overall, Nardi is 7-3 and Carreno-Busta is 4-6, a gap that shows up in the early stages as well, with first-set win rates of 60% and 40% respectively. Carreno-Busta reached this final by beating Botic van de Zandschulp in straight sets, while Nardi needed three sets to get past Marco Trungelliti, so the Italian has been asked a little more of his legs already.
Carreno-Busta P.
Nardi L.
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Bookmakers price Carreno-Busta at 1.63 against Nardi at 2.15; the first-set prices are 1.68 versus 2.03. It's a narrow edge, and it leaves room for the recent-form trend to test the market view if Nardi starts sharply.
With both men playing on consecutive days, the workload picture is part of the backdrop: Carreno-Busta has logged 3 hours 43 minutes across his last three matches, while Nardi has played 5 hours 45 minutes. In a best-of-three on hard courts that can be decisive, especially if service games stay tight and the first set becomes the main battleground. Carreno-Busta's slight market edge and past win in their only meeting point to experience in these moments, but Nardi's stronger last-10 return numbers mean he is well placed to apply scoreboard pressure.
Prediction
Pablo Carreno-Busta
Luca Nardi
Overall indicators tilt slightly towards Pablo Carreno-Busta, with the odds making him favourite and the only head-to-head meeting also going his way. Luca Nardi's 7-3 run in his last 10 keeps the margin slim, but his heavier recent court time adds a small question mark if the match turns into a long, tight contest.
Odds
