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Rafael Jodar faces Corentin Moutet in the Montreal ATP round of 32 on 6 August, with the hard-court contest played over the best of three sets. The ranking gap is clear.
Jodar arrives after a strong Washington run, while his broader hard-court results and the market both place him ahead. Moutet has at least stopped a poor run, which adds some caution.Jodar has gone 22-8 on hard courts, compared with Moutet's 6-7, and has held serve in 84% of games against 71%. That gives him far more room for error. Their return numbers are closer at 30% and 29%, so Moutet still has a route if he can create regular pressure.
Jodar's 6-4 recent record includes a run to the Washington final, where four straight wins ended with defeat to Taylor Fritz. He has held serve in 82% of games during that spell, eight points better than Moutet. Moutet is only 2-8, though his straight-sets win over Marton Fucsovics ended a four-match losing run.
Bookmakers price Jodar at 1.29 against Moutet at 3.75, with the first-set prices at 1.36 and 3.2 respectively. It is a firm market view, not a close call.
Jodar's main edge is the steadier service record and the pressure that creates across a hard-court match. Moutet has converted 58% of his break points on the surface, so loose service games could still change the contest quickly. Workload is not a major divider, although Jodar has spent slightly longer on court across his last five matches.
Jodar R.
Moutet C.
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Prediction
Rafael Jodar
Corentin Moutet
The data points towards Rafael Jodar, whose hard-court record and recent results are both much stronger, while the market also gives him a clear edge. Moutet's latest win keeps some caution in the call, but Jodar's serving numbers and Washington run make him the more likely winner.
Odds
