Market and return edge keep Jodar in control

Analysis by Predict Tennis

Note: Written by humans, with the help of AI. Based on real statistical data.

Published: Jun 26, 2026(..)

Rafael Jodar faces Felix Gill in the first round at Wimbledon ATP on 29 June, with a best-of-five match on grass ahead.

The market puts Jodar well clear, and the wider numbers support that view. Gill has already played several grass matches this season, but his return output on the surface leaves him with a difficult route into Jodar’s service games.

Gill's grass return numbers lag behind

Gill has the clearer grass sample this season, but it is not especially strong. He is 2-5 on the surface, holding 83% of his service games but winning only 6% of return games, which means he may need repeated clean holds just to stay level.

Jodar has no listed grass record in the season data, so the surface question is real. Even so, his broader season record of 37-11 gives him the stronger base.

Recent form favours Jodar's balance

Jodar is 7-3 across his last 10 matches, while Gill is 4-6. The gap is sharper on return: Jodar has won 33% of return games in that spell, compared with Gill at 10%, so Jodar looks better placed to create pressure across a long match.

Gill does bring a slightly cleaner serving profile, with 5.5 aces per match and fewer double faults. But his recent run includes three straight defeats, which weakens the case for an upset.

Bookmakers make Jodar a clear favourite

Bookmakers price Jodar at 1.2 against Gill at 4.5, while the first-set prices are 1.36 and 3.2. That is a firm market lean, not a narrow one.

Return pressure is the key split

The match looks likely to turn on whether Gill can keep enough cheap points on serve to hide his return numbers. Jodar’s overall return strength and stronger break-point conversion give him more ways to win games, while Gill’s grass results suggest he may struggle to turn pressure into breaks.

Workload does not create a major warning either. Jodar has played more over his last five matches, but there is no back-to-back flag for either player.

Jodar R.

Gill F.

Win Percentage

70 %40 %

Aces per match

4.6 5.5

Double Faults per match

3.3 0.9

First Serve Points Won

67 %69 %

Second Serve Points Won

55 %53 %

Return Points Won

42 %31 %

Break Points Converted

43 %21 %

Break Points Saved

63 %63 %

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Prediction

Wimbledon ATPPICK

Rafael Jodar

76%

Predicted Winner

Felix Gill

The data points clearly towards Rafael Jodar, mainly because of the market gap, his stronger recent record and the much better return numbers. Felix Gill’s serve can keep sections of the match close, but over best of five, Jodar has the broader profile and more reliable routes to control.

Odds

Odds:EUUKUS