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Rafael Jodar faces Pablo Carreno-Busta in the Wimbledon ATP 1/32-finals on 1 July, with the grass-court match played over best of five sets.
Jodar arrives as the shorter-priced player and also has the only recent win in this match-up. Carreno-Busta has form of his own, but the numbers point to a tougher task if he cannot protect second serves and limit return pressure.Jodar leads this match-up 1-0 after beating Carreno-Busta 3-2 at the French Open on 31 May. That was on clay, so it cannot be carried straight across to grass, but the way it played out matters: Jodar won the deciding set and created stronger pressure on return.
Jodar R.
Carreno-Busta P.
Both players are 1-0 on grass this season, so the surface sample is thin. Carreno-Busta has held all of his service games so far, but Jodar has won 33% of return games on grass compared with 10% for Carreno-Busta, which gives him more visible ways to break the match open.
Both players are 7-3 across their last 10 matches, so the basic form line is level. The difference is in the shape of those wins: Jodar has held 81% of service games and won 34% on return, while Carreno-Busta sits at 76% and 24%. That extra return bite is important on grass.
Bookmakers price Jodar at 1.3 against Carreno-Busta at 3.5, with the first-set market also leaning his way at 1.44 against 2.75. The prices make Jodar a clear favourite, though not without some room for caution in a best-of-five match.
Jodar R.
Carreno-Busta P.
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Carreno-Busta has the steadier first-set trend, but Jodar's broader season record and recent return numbers are stronger. Workload also adds a small note: Carreno-Busta has spent 9 hours and 12 minutes across his last three matches, compared with 4 hours and 26 minutes for Jodar. If rallies stretch and service games tighten, that could matter.
Prediction
Rafael Jodar
Pablo Carreno-Busta
The data points more towards Jodar, mainly because the market is clearly on his side and his recent return numbers give him more routes into Carreno-Busta service games. The previous five-set win also supports the lean, but the grass sample is still small, so this is a solid rather than risk-free call.
Odds
