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ATP/Wimbledon ATP/1/32-finals

Season form strengthens Jodar’s Wimbledon case

Analysis by Predict Tennis

Note: Written by humans, with the help of AI. Based on real statistical data.

Published: Jun 30, 2026(..)

Rafael Jodar faces Pablo Carreno-Busta in the Wimbledon ATP 1/32-finals on 1 July, with the grass-court match played over best of five sets.

Jodar arrives as the shorter-priced player and also has the only recent win in this match-up. Carreno-Busta has form of his own, but the numbers point to a tougher task if he cannot protect second serves and limit return pressure.

FINISHED

Jodar R.

Carreno-Busta P.

3-6

, 6-3

, 1-6

, 6-3

, 6-4

Jodar holds the only rivalry win

Jodar leads this match-up 1-0 after beating Carreno-Busta 3-2 at the French Open on 31 May. That was on clay, so it cannot be carried straight across to grass, but the way it played out matters: Jodar won the deciding set and created stronger pressure on return.

Jodar R.

Carreno-Busta P.

Wins

1 0

First Serve Points Won

69 %61 %

Second Serve Points Won

55 %38 %

Return Points Won

46 %36 %

Break Points Converted

73 %29 %

Break Points Saved

71 %27 %

Small grass sample still helps Jodar

Both players are 1-0 on grass this season, so the surface sample is thin. Carreno-Busta has held all of his service games so far, but Jodar has won 33% of return games on grass compared with 10% for Carreno-Busta, which gives him more visible ways to break the match open.

Recent form is close but not equal

Both players are 7-3 across their last 10 matches, so the basic form line is level. The difference is in the shape of those wins: Jodar has held 81% of service games and won 34% on return, while Carreno-Busta sits at 76% and 24%. That extra return bite is important on grass.

Bookmakers keep Jodar clear

Bookmakers price Jodar at 1.3 against Carreno-Busta at 3.5, with the first-set market also leaning his way at 1.44 against 2.75. The prices make Jodar a clear favourite, though not without some room for caution in a best-of-five match.

Jodar R.

Carreno-Busta P.

Win Percentage

80 %70 %

Aces per match

4.9 3.5

Double Faults per match

3.4 1.3

First Serve Points Won

69 %65 %

Second Serve Points Won

57 %59 %

Return Points Won

43 %38 %

Break Points Converted

46 %37 %

Break Points Saved

61 %60 %

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Return pressure may decide it

Carreno-Busta has the steadier first-set trend, but Jodar's broader season record and recent return numbers are stronger. Workload also adds a small note: Carreno-Busta has spent 9 hours and 12 minutes across his last three matches, compared with 4 hours and 26 minutes for Jodar. If rallies stretch and service games tighten, that could matter.

Prediction

Wimbledon ATPPICK

Rafael Jodar

65%

Predicted Winner

Pablo Carreno-Busta

The data points more towards Jodar, mainly because the market is clearly on his side and his recent return numbers give him more routes into Carreno-Busta service games. The previous five-set win also supports the lean, but the grass sample is still small, so this is a solid rather than risk-free call.

Odds

Odds:EUUKUS