Collignon backed by clay form in Paris opener

Raphael Collignon faces Aleksandar Vukic in the 1/64-finals of the French Open ATP on 25 May, with clay and a best-of-five format setting the test.

Collignon arrives with stronger clay results, a higher ranking and clear market support. Vukic does have a past win over him on this surface, but the wider numbers make this a difficult opening match for the outsider.

Past meetings keep Vukic in the picture

Their record is level at one win each, and both meetings went to a deciding set. Vukic won their only clay meeting, beating Collignon 2-1 in French Open qualifying on 23 May 2023, so this is not a match-up without warning signs for the favourite.

The rivalry has averaged 30.0 games per match, which points to two hard-fought contests rather than a clear pattern of control.

Clay season strongly favours Collignon

Collignon's clay record this season stands at 10 wins and 2 losses, while Vukic is 2-7. That gap matters because Collignon has also held 86% of his service games on the surface, giving him a steadier base in longer clay exchanges.

Vukic has held 69% of service games on clay and won 20% of return games. He needs more return pressure than that to turn this into a long first-round battle.

Recent rhythm also leans one way

Collignon has won seven of his last nine listed matches and recently reached the final in Bordeaux after a run that included wins over Geoffrey Blancaneaux, Titouan Droguet and Tallon Griekspoor. A defeat to Casper Ruud in Geneva ended that run, but the form line is still strong.

Vukic is 2-8 across his last 10. His service hold rate in that spell is 66%, and that leaves him little room if Collignon starts well.

Bookmakers make Collignon clear favourite

Bookmakers price Collignon at 1.08 against Vukic at 8, with first-set prices of 1.22 and 4.33. That is a very firm market view, and it matches the gap in recent results.

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Vukic needs early scoreboard pressure

The key for Vukic is to stop Collignon settling into service games and make the match feel closer than the odds suggest. Collignon's stronger clay record, better recent first-set rate and sharper return numbers give him several ways to build control.

There is a small note of caution from the past meetings. Still, the current clay evidence is much stronger on Collignon's side.

Prediction

Odds