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ATP/Wimbledon ATP/1/8-finals

Djokovic's history and grass form overshadow Safiullin's Wimbledon run

Analysis by Predict Tennis

Note: Written by humans, with the help of AI. Based on real statistical data.

Published: Jul 4, 2026(..)

Novak Djokovic and Roman Safiullin meet in the Wimbledon last 16 on 5 July in a best-of-five grass-court clash that pits a historic head-to-head dominance against a spirited underdog run.

The Serb holds a flawless record against his opponent. Bookmakers heavily favour the eighth seed to extend his dominance.

FINISHED

Safiullin R.

Djokovic N.

6-7

, 3-6

, 6-3

, 3-6

Djokovic's flawless historical grip on the rivalry

Djokovic holds a perfect 3-0 head-to-head record against Safiullin, though they have never met on grass. He has won all six sets between them. The Serb has claimed 37 games to his opponent's 15, showcasing relentless control.

Safiullin R.

Djokovic N.

Wins

0 3

First Serve Points Won

64 %84 %

Second Serve Points Won

32 %57 %

Return Points Won

26 %50 %

Break Points Converted

17 %35 %

Break Points Saved

65 %83 %

Grass-court efficiency heavily favours the eighth seed

Djokovic is unbeaten in three grass matches this season. He is winning 93% of his service games and converting half of his break-point chances. Safiullin has posted a solid 9-3 record on the surface, but his 88% service hold rate suggests a tighter margin for error.

Safiullin's spirited run meets Djokovic's steady rhythm

Safiullin arrives with momentum. He has won eight of his last ten matches, including impressive victories over Andrey Rublev and Joao Fonseca. Djokovic has also been strong, beating Stefanos Tsitsipas in straight sets.

Bookmakers leave little room for an upset

The market heavily backs Djokovic at 1.17. Safiullin is priced at 5.00. First-set odds reflect a similar expectation, pricing the Serb at 1.29 to take the opening frame.

Safiullin R.

Djokovic N.

Win Percentage

80 %70 %

Aces per match

9.2 8.7

Double Faults per match

3.6 2.9

First Serve Points Won

78 %75 %

Second Serve Points Won

56 %58 %

Return Points Won

35 %36 %

Break Points Converted

36 %41 %

Break Points Saved

64 %66 %

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Serve dominance and historical weight dictate the terms

Djokovic won 96% of his service games in their past meetings. This highlights a massive tactical mismatch. Safiullin has shown resilience in five-set qualifiers, yet the Serb's superior return pressure and slightly lighter workload suggest he will dictate the tempo.

Prediction

Wimbledon ATPPICK

Novak Djokovic

82%

Predicted Winner

Roman Safiullin

The data points overwhelmingly towards Djokovic. His flawless head-to-head record and superior grass-court efficiency provide a massive advantage. Safiullin's recent momentum is notable, but the Serb's serve dominance makes him the clear favourite.

Odds

Odds:EUUKUS