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ATP/Rome ATP/1/32-finals

Bublik's market edge faces clay-court resistance in Rome

Analysis by Predict Tennis

Note: Written by humans, with the help of AI. Based on real statistical data.

Published: May 7, 2026(..)

Sebastian Baez meets Alexander Bublik in the 1/32-finals of the Rome ATP on 8 May, with a best-of-three clay contest carrying early-round pressure.

The prices lean towards Bublik, but the clay numbers are not as clear-cut. Baez has the stronger return profile on the surface, while Bublik brings the higher ranking, the shorter workload and a previous win in the match-up.

FINISHED

Baez S.

Bublik A.

1-6

, 2-6

Bublik holds the only rivalry win

Bublik leads the series 1-0 after beating Baez 2-0 at the Miami ATP on hard court in March 2025. That meeting was not on clay, so it should not be overstated, but the pattern was still notable: Bublik won 90% of his service games and averaged nine aces, leaving Baez with limited scoreboard pressure.

Baez S.

Bublik A.

Wins

0 1

First Serve Points Won

63 %88 %

Second Serve Points Won

55 %50 %

Return Points Won

26 %39 %

Break Points Converted

33 %50 %

Break Points Saved

50 %67 %

Baez owns the deeper clay sample

On clay this season, Baez is 7-7 compared with Bublik's 2-3, and that extra volume matters in Rome. Both have held 70% of service games on the surface, but Baez has won 26% of return games against Bublik's 17%, giving him a clearer route to making this a clay-court grind rather than a serving contest.

Recent rhythm remains uneven

Baez has won four of his last 10 matches, while Bublik has won three of his last nine listed matches. Baez did respond with a straight-sets win over Jenson Brooksby in Rome, but six defeats in that run keep the picture mixed; Bublik, meanwhile, has lost three in a row since his Monte Carlo quarter-final run.

Market still sides with Bublik

Bookmakers price Bublik at 1.67 against Baez at 2.2, with first-set prices of 1.73 and 2.1. That suggests confidence in Bublik's higher ceiling, though the gap is not wide enough to erase Baez's clay-specific case.

Baez S.

Bublik A.

Win Percentage

40 %40 %

Aces per match

1.2 7.7

Double Faults per match

1.2 2.4

First Serve Points Won

60 %72 %

Second Serve Points Won

47 %50 %

Return Points Won

40 %33 %

Break Points Converted

55 %34 %

Break Points Saved

57 %59 %

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Serve power meets return pressure

Bublik's recent profile is built around stronger holding numbers, with 79% of service games won across his latest matches. Baez counters through return pressure and break-point efficiency, converting 55% of chances in that same recent window. The workload also tilts slightly towards Bublik, who has spent 2 hours 21 minutes across his last three matches compared with 4 hours 55 minutes for Baez.

Prediction

Rome ATPPICK

Alexander Bublik

57%

Predicted Winner

Sebastian Baez

The data points narrowly towards Bublik, mainly because the market, ranking gap, previous meeting and lighter recent workload all lean his way. Baez has enough clay return strength to make this uncomfortable, so the edge is modest rather than emphatic.

Odds

Odds:EUUKUS