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Sebastian Baez meets Luciano Darderi in the Australian Open ATP 1/32-finals on hard courts on 22 January, with a best-of-five test that could set the tone for their early season.
This preview also sets out where to watch and follow the match live, while digging into a curious split: Darderi is higher in the rankings, yet the prices lean towards Baez. It is only the third week of 2026, so the sample is small, but recent results and their past meetings still shape the early read.FINISHED
Baez S.
Darderi L.
3-6
, 6-1
, 4-6
, 3-6
Baez leads the rivalry 4-2, and he is 1-0 on hard courts after a four-set win at the US Open in August 2024. Yet the wider picture is tight: across six meetings the games count sits at 76-74, with deciding sets and tie-breaks split 1-1. Darderi has shown he can turn it, including a 2-1 win in Cordoba in February 2024 and a straight-sets win in Bastad in July 2025.
Baez S.
Darderi L.
On hard courts this season Baez is 8-1, and his hold rate has been strong at 81%, a solid base for a long match. Darderi is 2-1, but key serve and return efficiency figures are not available, which makes the read less complete. Even so, Baez's break-point work stands out early on, saving 74% and converting 46%.
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Baez brings an 8-2 run across his last 10 matches, and he has paired it with a healthier return clip than Darderi, winning 35% of return games to 16%. He reached the final in Auckland, then came through a five-setter in Melbourne, so he has already been stretched.
Darderi's last-10 record is 3-7 despite a straight-sets win over Cristian Garin in the opening round, and his first-set win rate sits at 40%.Baez S.
Darderi L.
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Bookmakers price Baez at 1.57 against Darderi at 2.38; the first-set prices are 1.67 versus 2.2. It is a clear lean rather than a landslide, and the early-season context keeps a little uncertainty in the picture.
Darderi's recent matches point to more free points, with 8 aces per match, but Baez's returning has been the steadier part of this match-up and that can matter over five sets. The workload is also slightly heavier on Darderi: 11 hours 30 minutes across his last five matches compared with Baez's 9 hours 17. Add a tight head-to-head, and a few key games could decide whether this turns into another long night.
Prediction
Sebastian Baez
Luciano Darderi
Overall indicators tilt towards Sebastian Baez, with the market leaning his way and his recent 8-2 run backed by a stronger return profile than Luciano Darderi's. The head-to-head also nudges to Baez, including the only hard-court meeting, even if the margins have often been narrow. With the season still only in its third week, it is a cautious call rather than a definitive one.
Odds
