Our new tennis stats site is live!

ATP/French Open ATP/1/64-finals

Clay form and market view favour Darderi in Paris

Analysis by Predict Tennis

Note: Written by humans, with the help of AI. Based on real statistical data.

Published: May 24, 2026(..)

Sebastian Ofner faces Luciano Darderi in the 1/64-finals of the French Open ATP on clay on 26 May, with a best-of-five format raising the physical test.

Darderi arrives as the higher-ranked player and the clear market favourite. Ofner has clay wins behind him too, but the recent pattern and return numbers make this a difficult opening match for him.

FINISHED

Ofner S.

Darderi L.

6-7

, 2-6

, 3-6

Clay meeting favours Darderi

Their rivalry is level at 1-1, but the clay meeting went to Luciano Darderi in straight sets at Cordoba in 2024. Sebastian Ofner answered on grass later that year, also in straight sets, so the record is split by surface rather than by clear overall control. The clay result matters more here.

Ofner S.

Darderi L.

Wins

1 1

First Serve Points Won

76 %73 %

Second Serve Points Won

46 %62 %

Return Points Won

32 %39 %

Break Points Converted

43 %45 %

Break Points Saved

55 %57 %

Darderi brings stronger clay volume

Darderi has gone 16-8 on clay this season and has an ATP title on the surface, while Ofner stands at 10-8. Ofner has held serve more often on clay, at 81% compared with 75%, but Darderi has been the better return player, winning 29% of return games against 23%. That return edge is important over five sets.

Recent results lean away from Ofner

Ofner's last 10 record is balanced at 5-5, but he has lost three of his last four. Darderi is 7-3 over the same span and has recent wins over Tommy Paul, Alexander Zverev and Yannick Hanfmann. It is not one-way traffic, though, because Ofner's recent service-game hold rate of 84% gives him a way to stay close.

Bookmakers make Darderi clear favourite

Bookmakers price Darderi at 1.36 against Ofner at 3.2; the first-set prices also favour Darderi at 1.5 against 2.63. That is a strong market lean, and it matches the ranking gap and recent clay results.

Ofner S.

Darderi L.

Win Percentage

50 %70 %

Aces per match

6 4.2

Double Faults per match

1.7 1.8

First Serve Points Won

74 %70 %

Second Serve Points Won

55 %53 %

Return Points Won

35 %40 %

Break Points Converted

44 %41 %

Break Points Saved

60 %42 %

Our new tennis stats site is live!

Return pressure is the main test

The match may turn on whether Ofner's serve can hold up under longer clay exchanges. Darderi has created more return pressure this season and has also handled deciding sets well in recent matches, while Ofner has struggled when matches have gone the distance. Darderi has had a slightly heavier recent workload, but not enough in the data to change the main reading.

Prediction

French Open ATPPICK

Luciano Darderi

66%

Predicted Winner

Sebastian Ofner

The data points towards Luciano Darderi, mainly because of his stronger clay record, recent 7-3 run and clear support from the odds. Sebastian Ofner's serve keeps him dangerous, but Darderi's return numbers and previous clay win in this match-up give him the firmer case.

Odds

Odds:EUUKUS