Our new tennis stats site is live!

ATP/US Open ATP/1/64-finals

Fils carries a 5-0 record into US Open clash with Tsitsipas

Analysis by Predict Tennis

Note: Written by humans, with the help of AI. Based on real statistical data.

Published: Aug 28, 2026(..)

Stefanos Tsitsipas meets Arthur Fils in the first round of the US Open on 30 August, a hard-court best-of-five contest with a heavily one-sided recent history.

Fils has won all five previous meetings, including three on hard courts, and arrives with a fresh Cincinnati title. Bookmakers and the form guide both lean strongly towards the Frenchman.

Fils owns this rivalry at every turn

Fils has won all five previous meetings, with the most recent a straight-sets win in Miami in March. He has also taken all three hard-court clashes, winning 93% of his service games across those head-to-heads compared with 70% for Tsitsipas. The Frenchman has converted 52% of break points in this fixture, while Tsitsipas has managed just 20%.

Tsitsipas S.

Fils A.

Wins

0 5

First Serve Points Won

71 %75 %

Second Serve Points Won

43 %68 %

Return Points Won

28 %40 %

Break Points Converted

20 %52 %

Break Points Saved

48 %80 %

Hard-court season numbers favour Fils

Fils has a 22-7 record on hard courts this season, including one title, while Tsitsipas is 13-11. The gap in return games won is stark: 24% to 16%. Fils also converts break points at 42% against 30% for Tsitsipas.

Fils arrives in New York on a roll

Fils has won nine of his last ten matches and lifted the Cincinnati title by beating Frances Tiafoe in the final. He has taken the first set in 90% of those contests. Tsitsipas is 6-4 over the same stretch and has lost three of his last five, including a straight-sets defeat in Winston-Salem.

Market prices leave little room for doubt

Bookmakers have Fils at 1.20 to win, with Tsitsipas at 4.50. The first-set market is similarly one-sided at 1.33 against 3.40.

Tsitsipas S.

Fils A.

Win Percentage

60 %90 %

Titles

1 1

Aces per match

6.8 6.4

Double Faults per match

3.2 2.2

First Serve Points Won

74 %78 %

Second Serve Points Won

54 %57 %

Return Points Won

36 %41 %

Break Points Converted

35 %47 %

Break Points Saved

53 %71 %

Our new tennis stats site is live!

Return pressure is likely to decide it

Fils's heavier return numbers and superior break-point conversion create a clear pattern. Tsitsipas serves well enough to stay in games, but his second-serve numbers in this specific match-up have been a problem, winning only 43% of those points. A lighter recent workload also favours Fils, with roughly three hours and 42 minutes over his last three matches compared with five hours and two minutes for Tsitsipas.

Prediction

US Open ATPPICK

Arthur Fils

78%

Predicted Winner

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Every significant indicator tilts towards Arthur Fils. The 5-0 head-to-head record, stronger hard-court season and a 9-1 recent run leave Stefanos Tsitsipas needing a sharp reversal. Fils's return game should apply constant pressure in a best-of-five format.

Odds

Odds:EUUKUS