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ATP/Gstaad ATP/1/16-finals

Clay record keeps Buse narrowly ahead of Tsitsipas in Gstaad

Analysis by Predict Tennis

Note: Written by humans, with the help of AI. Based on real statistical data.

Published: Jul 12, 2026(..)

Stefanos Tsitsipas faces Ignacio Buse in the Gstaad ATP last 32 on 13 July, with their clay-court match played over the best of three sets.

The market sees almost nothing between them. Tsitsipas has the stronger serve, but Buse brings better clay results, a higher ranking and a recent win in their only previous meeting.

Buse holds the early rivalry edge

Buse won their only previous meeting in straight sets at Mallorca on 22 June, taking a close grass-court contest that included one tie-break. There is no clay history between them, so that result offers a useful psychological edge without settling how this slower match-up will develop.

Tsitsipas S.

Buse I.

Wins

0 1

First Serve Points Won

74 %78 %

Second Serve Points Won

59 %59 %

Return Points Won

28 %32 %

Break Points Converted

0 %25 %

Break Points Saved

75 %100 %

Clay results favour Buse

Buse has compiled a 16-10 clay record this season and won one ATP title, while Tsitsipas stands at 5-6. Tsitsipas has held serve in 87% of his clay service games, but Buse has won 28% of return games, giving him the stronger record of applying pressure across a full match.

Recent form shows contrasting strengths

Tsitsipas has won four of his last 10 matches, compared with five for Buse. His 88% hold rate remains a major strength, yet Buse has produced more on return and converted 44% of his break chances, which could matter if rallies become longer and service points less direct.

Market expects a close contest

Bookmakers price both players at 1.91 for the match, underlining how finely balanced the contest appears. Buse is the shorter first-set choice at 1.8 against 1.97, despite Tsitsipas winning the opening set more often across their recent matches.

Tsitsipas S.

Buse I.

Win Percentage

40 %60 %

Titles

0 1

Aces per match

6.8 2.9

Double Faults per match

1.7 2.1

First Serve Points Won

76 %68 %

Second Serve Points Won

52 %50 %

Return Points Won

32 %39 %

Break Points Converted

33 %47 %

Break Points Saved

72 %55 %

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Serve against return pressure

The clearest route for Tsitsipas is to protect his serve and avoid giving Buse repeated chances to work into return games. Buse has the wider clay sample, better recent return numbers and the confidence of beating Tsitsipas only three weeks ago. Their recent workloads are similar, so neither holds a clear freshness advantage.

Prediction

Gstaad ATPPICK

Ignacio Buse

55%

Predicted Winner

Stefanos Tsitsipas

The indicators lean narrowly towards Ignacio Buse. His stronger clay record, better return figures and win in their only previous meeting give him a small edge, although Stefanos Tsitsipas' service numbers make this a close and uncertain contest.

Odds

Odds:EUUKUS