Market still trusts Tsitsipas despite Buse's stronger run

Analysis by Predict Tennis

Note: Written by humans, with the help of AI. Based on real statistical data.

Published: Jun 20, 2026(..)

Stefanos Tsitsipas faces Ignacio Buse in the 1/16-finals at Mallorca ATP on 22 June, with grass and a best-of-three format setting a quick test.

The market makes Tsitsipas the favourite, but the numbers are not one-sided. Buse brings the better recent record and the higher ranking, while Tsitsipas has the stronger serving base.

Grass sample gives few firm answers

Buse has at least opened his grass season, splitting two matches and averaging 25.0 total games across them. His service games won mark of 71% is not dominant, though, and his return number on grass sits at 12%, which leaves room for Tsitsipas to control more holds if his serve lands well.

Tsitsipas has no grass-season record in the data, so his broader season profile matters more. He has won 88% of service games overall, a useful starting point on this surface.

Buse arrives with better momentum

The recent record favours Buse. He has won seven of his last 10 matches, including a final run in Hamburg, while Tsitsipas is 5-5 across the same span.

There is a clear contrast underneath that form. Tsitsipas has held serve in 91% of recent service games, but Buse has been more active on return, winning 33% of return games and converting 52% of break chances.

Bookmakers keep Tsitsipas in front

Bookmakers price Tsitsipas at 1.57 against Buse at 2.38, with first-set prices of 1.62 and 2.3. That gives Tsitsipas a clear market edge, although the recent-form picture makes the gap feel tighter than the prices alone suggest.

Serve strength meets return pressure

Tsitsipas' best route is direct: protect serve, keep the first set orderly, and force Buse to win enough points on return. Buse's route is different. His recent return games won rate and perfect deciding-set record in the sample suggest he can stretch the match if he keeps early pressure on Tsitsipas' second-service games.

Tsitsipas S.

Buse I.

Win Percentage

50 %80 %

Titles

0 1

Aces per match

6.4 2.5

Double Faults per match

1.9 1.4

First Serve Points Won

76 %70 %

Second Serve Points Won

52 %55 %

Return Points Won

32 %43 %

Break Points Converted

40 %53 %

Break Points Saved

81 %61 %

Our new tennis stats site is live!

Prediction

Mallorca ATPPICK

Stefanos Tsitsipas

57%

Predicted Winner

Ignacio Buse

The data points narrowly towards Stefanos Tsitsipas, mainly because the market and recent service numbers give him the cleaner route on grass. Buse has stronger momentum and better return numbers, so this is not a wide call, but Tsitsipas' hold rate gives him a slight edge in a best-of-three match.

Odds

Odds:EUUKUS