Fritz favoured to overcome Tirante despite previous hard-court defeat

Tirante won their only previous meeting 2-0 at the Montreal ATP tournament on 6 August, also on hard courts. The Argentine held serve throughout that contest, winning 96% of points behind his first delivery and denying Fritz a single break. It was an impressive result, although one match provides limited evidence of how this final might unfold.

Fritz has compiled a 34-17 record on hard courts this season, compared with Tirante's 19-15. The American has also won 89% of his service games on the surface against 86% for Tirante, giving him a modest but important advantage in maintaining control of sets. Fritz has claimed an ATP title this season, while Tirante is seeking his first.

Fritz has won eight of his last 10 matches, including straight-set victories over Cameron Norrie and Lorenzo Musetti in Stockholm. Tirante's corresponding record is 5-5, although three consecutive wins here, culminating in a semi-final victory over Alejandro Tabilo, have improved his momentum. Fritz has held serve in 92% of games across those 10 matches, compared with 87% for Tirante.

Bookmakers price Fritz at 1.17 against Tirante at 5, making the American a substantial favourite. The first-set prices of 1.25 and 4 respectively reinforce that expectation. The market sees a much wider gap between the players than their previous meeting might suggest.

The central question is whether Fritz can improve on his Montreal return performance. He has won 19% of return games across his last 10 matches, compared with Tirante's 13%, suggesting greater recent effectiveness in creating breaks.

Tirante has also spent just over an hour longer on court across his last three matches, a small workload difference that could become relevant if the final extends into a deciding set.