Hard-court numbers favour Draper against Atmane

Analysis by Predict Tennis

Note: Written by humans, with the help of AI. Based on real statistical data.

Published: Aug 1, 2026(..)

Terence Atmane faces Jack Draper in the first round of the Montreal ATP on 3 August, with the hard-court match played over the best of three sets.

Draper enters as the clear market favourite, and his stronger hard-court serving and returning numbers support that view. Atmane has played more recently, but his heavier workload and poor run of results raise concerns.

Draper holds the hard-court edge

Draper has won four of his seven hard-court matches this season, compared with Atmane's eight wins from 18. More importantly, Draper has held serve in 87% of his service games and won 15% of return games, giving him the stronger base in both areas.

Recent results offer little comfort

Neither player brings strong recent results, with Draper at three wins and seven losses and Atmane at two wins and eight losses. Draper still has the better underlying figures, holding serve more often and converting 44% of his break chances, while Atmane has converted only 26%.

Atmane did beat Frances Tiafoe in Washington, but he then lost in straight sets to Alejandro Tabilo. Draper's latest event ended in the Eastbourne semi-finals after three straight wins.

Bookmakers make Draper clear favourite

Bookmakers price Draper at 1.53 against Atmane at 2.5. The first-set market shows a similar gap, with Draper at 1.62 and Atmane at 2.3.

Workload adds to Atmane's task

Atmane has spent 10 hours and 32 minutes on court across his last five matches, more than double Draper's four hours and 22 minutes. That does not decide the contest, but it adds weight to Draper's stronger serve-return profile and greater efficiency on hard courts.

Atmane's eight aces per match give him a route to cheap points. However, his low return success means he may struggle to create enough pressure if Draper serves close to his season level.

Atmane T.

Draper J.

Win Percentage

20 %60 %

Aces per match

8.1 5.5

Double Faults per match

2.5 2.2

First Serve Points Won

75 %76 %

Second Serve Points Won

50 %52 %

Return Points Won

28 %35 %

Break Points Converted

26 %44 %

Break Points Saved

59 %50 %

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Prediction

Montreal ATPPICK

Jack Draper

66%

Predicted Winner

Terence Atmane

The broader indicators lean towards Jack Draper. His hard-court serving and returning figures are stronger, the recent form is slightly better, and the market also gives him a clear edge, although Terence Atmane's serving power keeps the match competitive.

Odds

Odds:EUUKUS