Mensik favoured despite Tirante's strong recent run

Analysis by Predict Tennis

Note: Written by humans, with the help of AI. Based on real statistical data.

Published: Aug 18, 2026(..)

Thiago Agustin Tirante meets Jakub Mensik in the Cincinnati ATP round of 16 on 19 August, on hard court in a best-of-three contest.

Mensik enters with the stronger hard-court season and clear support from the market, but Tirante's recent results make this less straightforward. He has won eight of his last 10 matches and arrives after three straight victories in Cincinnati.

FINISHED

Tirante T. A.

Mensik J.

5-7

, 6-4

Mensik owns the stronger hard-court record

Mensik has gone 21-8 on hard courts this season, compared with Tirante's 13-7 record, and has also won an ATP title on the surface. Tirante has actually held serve slightly more often, 86% against 84%, but Mensik has been more effective when chances appear, converting 39% of break points compared with 31%.

Tirante brings the hotter recent form

The recent picture is much closer, and arguably favours Tirante. He is 8-2 across his last 10 matches, including wins over Taylor Fritz and Novak Djokovic, while Mensik is 7-3. Tirante has also won the opening set in 70% of those matches, against 60% for Mensik.

Market gives Mensik a clear edge

Bookmakers price Mensik at 1.44 against Tirante at 2.75, making the higher-ranked player a clear favourite. The same view appears in the first-set market, where Mensik is 1.53 and Tirante 2.5.

Serve strength meets a workload gap

Both players have protected serve well recently, but Mensik has produced the greater outright serving threat with 12.5 aces per match against Tirante's 8. Tirante also carries the heavier recent workload, with just over 11 hours played across his last five matches compared with just under nine for Mensik. That could matter if another close contest develops.

Tirante T. A.

Mensik J.

Win Percentage

80 %70 %

Aces per match

8.9 12.5

Double Faults per match

3.7 4

First Serve Points Won

76 %79 %

Second Serve Points Won

58 %47 %

Return Points Won

37 %35 %

Break Points Converted

28 %29 %

Break Points Saved

67 %64 %

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Prediction

Cincinnati ATPPICK

Jakub Mensik

63%

Predicted Winner

Thiago Agustin Tirante

The overall indicators lean towards Jakub Mensik, mainly because of his stronger hard-court season and the clear market support behind him. Thiago Agustin Tirante's 8-2 recent record gives the match more balance, but Mensik's serving threat and lighter recent workload strengthen his case.

Odds

Odds:EUUKUS