Paul v Davidovich Fokina live stream and where to watch as Australian Open last-16 begins

Tommy Paul meets Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the Australian Open round of 16 on hard courts on 23 January, with a best-of-five test shaping a place in the quarter-finals.

It is still early in the 2026 season and the sample is small, but the storylines are already clear: Paul has swept their hard-court meetings and the market leans his way. Alongside the match breakdown, this preview sets out where to watch or follow the match live and what the recent numbers suggest.

Paul owns a 4-0 series lead

Tommy Paul is 4-0 against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, all of it on hard courts, and the most recent chapter was a straight-sets win at the Australian Open on 19 January 2025. The rivalry has not always been short on work, though, averaging 30.3 games per match with one deciding set and a tie-break on the slate.

Across those meetings Paul has served bigger, combining 12.3 aces per match with 87% of service games held, while Davidovich Fokina has faced more heat on serve.

Small-sample season stats still point to Paul on serve

Both players arrive with 4-2 records on hard courts in 2026, which underlines how early the calendar is rather than offering a settled verdict. Even so, Paul's serve figures have been spotless in that stretch, with 100% of service games held, and his matches have averaged 25.5 games.

Davidovich Fokina's season profile has run longer at 29.2 games per match, and his return numbers have been slightly higher, but the margins remain thin.

Watch Tommy Paul v. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Live Online

Want to catch the match live? Our top pick is bet365. It's hands-down our favorite way to follow the whole tennis season. Just keep in mind a few rules: you need to be over 18 and have a funded account to access the stream. Also, geo-restrictions do apply, so make sure to double-check that the match is available in your region before signing up.

First sets favour Paul, late scrambles favour Davidovich Fokina

Over the last 10 matches overall, both have gone 6-4, yet they have arrived there in different ways. Paul has won 80% of first sets in that span, a quick-start pattern that matters in a best-of-five, while Davidovich Fokina has taken 67% of deciding sets, hinting at resilience when matches stretch. The workload trend is also worth noting: Davidovich Fokina has logged 11 hours 3 minutes across his last five, compared with Paul's 7 hours 46 minutes.

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Bookmakers shade towards Paul

Bookmakers price Tommy Paul at 1.5 against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina at 2.63, with first-set odds of 1.62 versus 2.3. That framing fits the recent head-to-head and Paul's strong early-set record, even with the season only in its third week.

Best-of-five hinges on serve control and stamina

The cleanest path for Paul is familiar: protect serve, take early leads, and force Davidovich Fokina to play catch-up under pressure as he has in their previous hard-court meetings. Davidovich Fokina's best case is to extend rallies, drag the match into deeper waters, and lean on the late-set grit that has shown up in his recent results. With the Australian Open now in full swing, the longer format magnifies every dip, and the heavier recent court time on Davidovich Fokina's side could become a factor if it turns into a long night.

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