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ATP/US Open ATP/1/8-finals

Rivalry edge favours Alcaraz at US Open

Analysis by Predict Tennis

Note: Written by humans, with the help of AI. Based on real statistical data.

Published: Sep 5, 2026(..)

Tommy Paul faces Carlos Alcaraz in the US Open ATP round of 16 on 6 September, with the hard-court contest played over the best of five sets.

Paul arrives after three straight wins at the tournament, but Alcaraz has the stronger wider case. His hard-court record, return numbers and 6-2 lead across their eight meetings all support the heavy market backing behind him.

Alcaraz holds the rivalry advantage

Alcaraz leads their eight meetings 6-2 overall, although the hard-court record is closer at 3-2. Their five matches on this surface have averaged 30.6 games, showing that Paul has still been able to make this a competitive match-up.

Paul T.

Alcaraz C.

Wins

2 6

First Serve Points Won

65 %72 %

Second Serve Points Won

49 %57 %

Return Points Won

33 %41 %

Break Points Converted

34 %31 %

Break Points Saved

69 %66 %

Hard-court returns separate the pair

Paul has gone 21-10 on hard courts this season and has held serve in 88% of his service games. Alcaraz is 20-2 on the surface, while his 30% return-games-won rate stands above Paul's 22%, giving him more ways to create pressure when Paul is serving.

Both arrive with winning momentum

Paul is 7-3 across his last 10 matches, while Alcaraz is 8-2, and both have won their opening three matches at this US Open. Their recent service hold rate is identical at 86%, but Alcaraz has won 42% of return games compared with Paul's 22%; Paul has also spent 9 hours and 3 minutes on court across his last three matches, against 7 hours and 24 minutes for Alcaraz.

Market expects an Alcaraz win

Bookmakers price Alcaraz at 1.17 against Paul at 5, making the world number three a clear favourite. The first-set market tells the same story, with Alcaraz at 1.33 and Paul at 3.4.

Paul T.

Alcaraz C.

Win Percentage

70 %80 %

Aces per match

7.8 3.3

Double Faults per match

2.5 3.4

First Serve Points Won

75 %69 %

Second Serve Points Won

54 %56 %

Return Points Won

37 %45 %

Break Points Converted

50 %52 %

Break Points Saved

70 %67 %

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Paul must protect his serve

Paul's service numbers give him a route into the contest, but the larger concern is what happens when Alcaraz gets into return games. Alcaraz has been much more productive on return both across the hard-court season and in recent matches, while his shorter workload over the last three rounds may also help in a best-of-five contest. Paul can keep the margins tighter if he holds efficiently, but the pressure is likely to build if rallies repeatedly begin on Alcaraz's terms.

Prediction

US Open ATPPICK

Carlos Alcaraz

80%

Predicted Winner

Tommy Paul

The broader indicators lean clearly towards Carlos Alcaraz. His 20-2 hard-court season, stronger return numbers and 6-2 rivalry lead all support the market view, although Paul's current run and solid serving give him a credible chance to make parts of the match competitive.

Odds

Odds:EUUKUS