Tiafoe's recent run outweighs Vacherot serve edge at US Open

Analysis by Predict Tennis

Note: Written by humans, with the help of AI. Based on real statistical data.

Published: Sep 3, 2026(..)

Valentin Vacherot faces Frances Tiafoe in the US Open round of 32 on 4 September, with their hard-court match played over the best of five sets.

Tiafoe brings the stronger recent results and the shorter price, while Vacherot's better service hold rate gives him a clear route to keep sets tight.

Tiafoe holds the stronger hard-court record

Tiafoe has gone 23-10 on hard courts this season, compared with Vacherot's 10-9 record. Vacherot has held serve more often, 87% against 83%, but Tiafoe's 22% return-games figure is stronger than Vacherot's 17%, giving him more chances to apply pressure.

Recent results widen the gap

Tiafoe has won eight of his last 10 matches and reached the Cincinnati final before starting the US Open with two more victories. Vacherot is 4-6 over the same wider sample, although back-to-back wins in New York give him some momentum. Tiafoe has also converted 49% of recent break chances, well above Vacherot's 36%.

Market makes Tiafoe clear favourite

Bookmakers price Tiafoe at 1.44 against Vacherot at 2.75, while the first-set prices are 1.57 and 2.38 respectively. That is a clear lean towards Tiafoe, rather than a marginal preference.

Vacherot's serve is the main obstacle

The main tension is between Vacherot's stronger service numbers and Tiafoe's greater return pressure and recent winning rate. Tiafoe has carried the heavier recent workload, with 12 hours and two minutes across his last five matches compared with 10 hours and seven minutes for Vacherot, although neither is coming off back-to-back play. In a best-of-five match, Vacherot may need his serve to remain reliable for long stretches to stop Tiafoe creating repeated chances.

Vacherot V.

Tiafoe F.

Win Percentage

40 %80 %

Aces per match

10.5 5.8

Double Faults per match

4.7 3.2

First Serve Points Won

76 %76 %

Second Serve Points Won

52 %54 %

Return Points Won

35 %38 %

Break Points Converted

30 %49 %

Break Points Saved

52 %65 %

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Prediction

US Open ATPPICK

Frances Tiafoe

66%

Predicted Winner

Valentin Vacherot

The overall indicators favour Frances Tiafoe. His 8-2 recent record, stronger hard-court return numbers and clear market support outweigh Valentin Vacherot's edge in service games won, though that serving strength gives Vacherot a realistic way to make the match competitive.

Odds

Odds:EUUKUS