The Best Tennis Stats.
Our new tennis stats site is live!
Valentin Vacherot and Mariano Navone meet in the first round of the Montreal ATP on 6 August, playing a best-of-three-sets match on hard courts. Bookmakers favour the higher-ranked Monegasque. Yet the contrast in their current momentum adds an intriguing layer to this early-round contest.
The pair has met once before, with Vacherot securing a straight-sets victory on the hard courts of Miami earlier this year. That match highlighted a clear serving gap. Vacherot won every service game and converted two-thirds of his break-point chances, while Navone failed to convert any of his five opportunities.
Vacherot V.
Navone M.
Vacherot holds an 8-7 record on hard courts this season, underpinned by an 89% service games won metric. Navone has played slightly fewer matches on the surface, sitting at 7-5. However, his return games won figure of 27% offers a potential route back into rallies if he can read the serve.
Vacherot has spent the last few months grinding on clay, but Navone arrives in Montreal with a recent hard-court win over Matteo Berrettini. That victory provides a timely confidence boost. Vacherot's first-set win rate sits at just 30% in his last ten matches, suggesting he often has to fight from behind.
The market reflects Vacherot's higher ranking and previous success against Navone. Bookmakers price the favourite at 1.62, leaving his opponent at a much larger 2.3. First-set prices follow a similar pattern.
Vacherot V.
Navone M.
The Best Tennis Stats.
Our new tennis stats site is live!
Vacherot will look to dominate with his serve, averaging over seven aces per match in his recent outings. Navone must rely on his superior return numbers to extend rallies. The opening set could prove decisive, especially since the favourite often drops the first frame before finding his rhythm.
Prediction
Valentin Vacherot
Mariano Navone
The data points towards Vacherot, backed by his superior hard-court serving numbers and a previous straight-sets win over Navone. Although Navone arrives with a recent hard-court victory, Vacherot's ability to hold serve at an 89% clip this season makes him the likely winner. The market pricing only reinforces that view.
Odds
