Kopriva carries stronger recent form into Moutet French Open clash

Vit Kopriva and Corentin Moutet meet in the first round of the French Open on Tuesday. It is a best-of-five clay-court contest at Roland Garros. The market views Moutet as the clear favourite, but Kopriva arrives in superior recent form and with less fatigue. That contrast shapes the outlook for this intriguing opener.

FINISHED

Kopriva V.

3

2

Moutet C.

6-3

, 5-7

, 6-4

, 3-6

, 6-3

Moutet's sharper clay numbers on smaller sample

This season on clay, Moutet has won 73% of his service games and 28% of return games. Kopriva's marks are 66.5% and 23% respectively. However, Kopriva has played 22 clay matches (12-10), while Moutet has only nine (3-6). The Frenchman also saves break points at just 55%, compared to Kopriva's 67%. Those numbers suggest Moutet's underlying efficiency is better, but the sample size is thin.

Kopriva's last-10 edge includes a perfect deciding-set record

Over their past ten matches, Kopriva has won six and lost four. Moutet has won only three. The Czech has won all three of his deciding sets in that span. Moutet is zero for two. Kopriva also holds a slight edge in service games won (74% to 72%) and return games (26% to 25%). More importantly, Kopriva arrives having beaten Andrey Rublev and Fabian Marozsan on clay in recent weeks. Moutet has lost four straight matches.

Market still favours Moutet despite slump

Bookmakers price Moutet at 1.57 to win, with Kopriva at 2.38. First-set odds tell a similar story: Moutet 1.67, Kopriva 2.20. That implies around a 63% chance for the higher-ranked Frenchman. The market clearly trusts Moutet's class and his superior season-long clay percentages over Kopriva's recent surge.

Fatigue and form point to an underdog threat

Moutet has spent nearly seven hours on court across his last three matches and over ten hours in his last five. Kopriva has played just over four and nearly seven respectively. In a best-of-five setting, that extra workload could matter. The big question is whether Moutet's poor recent results are a blip or a trend. Kopriva's return game is modest, but he has been finding ways to win. Expect a tight, grinding contest where momentum may outweigh ranking.

Kopriva V.

Moutet C.

Our new tennis stats site is live!

Prediction

Odds