Clay form keeps Hanfmann-Halys semi-final close

Analysis by Predict Tennis

Note: Written by humans, with the help of AI. Based on real statistical data.

Published: Jul 23, 2026(..)

Yannick Hanfmann meets Quentin Halys in the Kitzbuhel ATP semi-finals on 25 July, with the clay-court match played over the best of three sets.

Hanfmann holds the stronger ranking and is the market favourite, but Halys arrives with seven wins from ten and better break-point numbers on clay. There is a clear lean, though not a simple one.

Halys owns the only past meeting

Halys won their only previous meeting in straight sets at the Bergamo Challenger in February 2017, taking 12 games to Hanfmann's seven. That match was played on indoor hard courts, however, and there is no past clay meeting to guide this semi-final.

Hanfmann Y.

Halys Q.

Wins

0 1

Clay numbers leave little between them

Hanfmann has the stronger clay record this season at 14-8, compared with Halys at 11-7, and has held serve slightly more often at 87% against 86%. Halys has been better under break-point pressure, saving 71% and converting 46%, which gives him a clear route into Hanfmann's service games.

Both arrive on straight-set runs

Halys has won seven of his last 10 matches, one more than Hanfmann, while both players have reached the semi-finals with three straight-set wins in Kitzbuhel. Their recent service numbers are almost level, with each holding in about nine out of every 10 games. Momentum is strong on both sides.

Bookmakers keep Hanfmann in front

Bookmakers price Hanfmann at 1.53 against Halys at 2.5, with first-set prices of 1.57 and 2.38. The market gives Hanfmann a firm edge, but Halys' recent run and clay return numbers suggest a closer contest than the main prices may imply.

Hanfmann Y.

Halys Q.

Win Percentage

60 %70 %

Aces per match

9.9 9.8

Double Faults per match

1.9 3.6

First Serve Points Won

81 %83 %

Second Serve Points Won

57 %54 %

Return Points Won

35 %33 %

Break Points Converted

26 %34 %

Break Points Saved

62 %72 %

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Early control may prove decisive

Hanfmann has won 60% of his recent opening sets, compared with 50% for Halys, so a fast start would support the favourite's case. Halys has shown the stronger record when matches go to a deciding set, making it important for Hanfmann to stay ahead. Workload offers no clear split, with both spending close to four hours and 45 minutes on court across their last three matches.

Prediction

Kitzbuhel ATPPICK

Yannick Hanfmann

59%

Predicted Winner

Quentin Halys

The wider picture leans towards Yannick Hanfmann because of his stronger clay record, higher ranking and clear market support. Quentin Halys has the better recent record and stronger break-point figures, so the gap is narrow, but Hanfmann gets the call at 59%.

Odds

Odds:EUUKUS