Alcaraz shakes off rust, powers past two rounds to Wu clash

Yibing Wu and Carlos Alcaraz meet in the US Open last 32 on hard courts on 3 September, with a best-of-five-set place in the next round at stake. Wu has won four of his past five, but the market and the broader numbers sit heavily with Alcaraz. The Spaniard won their only previous meeting without losing serve.

One hard-court meeting, one clear pattern

Alcaraz won their only previous match in straight sets at Shanghai in October 2024, taking 13 games to Wu's nine. Wu's serve was effective in that match, but he created no break points. Alcaraz did not drop serve and hit 11 aces.

Wu Y.

Alcaraz C.

Wins

0 1

First Serve Points Won

73 %81 %

Second Serve Points Won

50 %56 %

Return Points Won

29 %33 %

Break Points Converted

0 %33 %

Break Points Saved

67 %0 %

Alcaraz's hard-court record stands apart

Alcaraz has won 19 of 21 hard-court matches this season and held serve in 90% of service games. Wu is 16-9 on the surface and holds at 79%. Alcaraz also saves break points far more effectively, at 69% to Wu's 53%.

Wu's New York wins bring rhythm

Wu has won four of his last five, including straight-set victories over Duckworth and Walton in New York. Alcaraz has also looked sharp, winning his two US Open matches and losing only one set. Across the last 10, both have taken the first set 60% of the time, but Alcaraz has won 36% of return games compared with Wu's 22%.

Bookmakers leave little room for doubt

Bookmakers price Alcaraz at 1.10 and Wu at 7.00 for the match. The first-set market is 1.25 against 4.00. The pricing reflects a clear favourite.

Wu Y.

Alcaraz C.

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Serve control and return pressure decide it

Wu's path is narrow. He needs to protect his serve and find a way to pressure Alcaraz's second delivery, but the numbers say that will be difficult. Alcaraz has the stronger hold rate, better return game and previous edge. Fatigue is not a major differentiator, though Alcaraz has spent slightly longer on court across his last five matches.

Prediction

Odds