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Yibing Wu faces Novak Djokovic in the 1/64-finals of Wimbledon ATP on 29 June, with the grass match set for best of five sets.
The gap in the market is the clearest starting point. Djokovic is priced at 1.04 to win, while Wu is out at 13, and Wu also arrives after losing three of his last four matches on grass.Wu has played four grass matches in the available season data, winning once and losing three times. His service games won rate sits at 77%, which is solid enough, but a 22% return-games won rate leaves him needing clean serving patches to stay close.
Wu is 4-6 across his last 10 matches and has lost three of his last four, including defeats at Hertogenbosch, Nottingham and Eastbourne. Djokovic is 6-4 in the same recent window, with an 82% hold rate, and that gives him a steadier base even though his last match ended in a five-set defeat to Joao Fonseca.
Bookmakers price Djokovic at 1.04 against Wu at 13; first-set prices are 1.17 for Djokovic and 5 for Wu. That is a very strong market lean, and it matches the ranking gap between number 8 and number 99.
The main caution is workload, with Djokovic listed at 11 hours and 37 minutes across his last three matches and 16 hours and 31 minutes across his last five. Wu's recent load is lighter, but he has not shown enough grass-court return pressure to make that edge feel decisive.
Wu Y.
Djokovic N.
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Prediction
Novak Djokovic
Yibing Wu
The data points strongly towards Djokovic, mainly because the market gap is huge and his recent hold numbers are stronger. Wu's grass record is thin and his return numbers do not suggest easy pressure, although Djokovic's heavier recent workload keeps the prediction slightly short of total certainty.
Odds
