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Gauff carries heavy market backing into US Open opener

Analysis by Predict Tennis

Note: Written by humans, with the help of AI. Based on real statistical data.

Published: Aug 28, 2026(..)

Zeynep Sonmez faces fourth seed Coco Gauff in the first round of the US Open. This best-of-three-sets hard-court contest presents a steep initial challenge for the world number 52. Gauff enters as an overwhelming favourite, with recent form and surface statistics pointing to a straightforward passage for the American.

Gauff's hard-court dominance sets the tone

Gauff holds a 25-7 record on hard courts this season, claiming one WTA title. She has won 70% of her service games and 46% of return games, showcasing a highly balanced attack. Sonmez sits at 13-11 on the surface. Her numbers are solid but less commanding.

Momentum heavily favours the world number four

Over her last ten matches, Gauff has won nine. She captured the first set in 80% of those contests. Sonmez holds an even 5-5 record in that same span. While the Turkish player has shown resilience by winning 75% of deciding sets, Gauff's ability to close out matches early limits those scenarios.

Bookmakers price a straightforward opening round

The betting market reflects the stark ranking gap. Bookmakers price Gauff at 1.04 for the match win and 1.1 to take the first set. Sonmez is available at 13, highlighting the immense challenge she faces against a top-five opponent.

Serve and return gap defines the matchup

Gauff’s superior first-strike tennis will be the defining factor here. She averages nearly four aces per match recently, compared to Sonmez's 1.6. Coupled with a lighter recent workload of under four hours across her last three matches, Gauff arrives fresh. She is fully equipped to dictate play from the baseline.

Sonmez Z.

Gauff C.

Win Percentage
50 %90 %
Titles
0 1
Aces per match
1.5 4.2
Double Faults per match
3.8 4.5
First Serve Points Won
59 %72 %
Second Serve Points Won
42 %47 %
Return Points Won
43 %50 %
Break Points Converted
49 %50 %
Break Points Saved
51 %58 %

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Prediction

US Open WTAPICK

Coco Gauff

90%
Predicted Winner

Zeynep Sonmez

The data points decisively towards Coco Gauff. Her exceptional 9-1 recent form, combined with a 70% service games won rate on hard courts this season, creates a significant gap in quality. Bookmakers correctly identify her as the overwhelming favourite to advance comfortably.

Odds

Odds:

To Win Match

Total Games

16.5

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