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Alejandro Davidovich Fokina meets Valentin Vacherot in the Adelaide ATP quarter-finals on hard courts on 15 Jan, a best-of-three match with live stream and live-score coverage to follow. This preview also sets out the key form and odds angles before they step on court.
With the 2026 season only in its second week and the Australian Open close, small samples matter and sharp starts are valuable. Davidovich Fokina arrives as the higher-ranked player and the clear market favourite, but Vacherot has quietly built momentum in recent matches and has already found wins in Adelaide.FINISHED
Davidovich Fokina A.
Vacherot V.
7-6
, 6-2
They have met once before, with Davidovich Fokina leading 1-0 after a 3-1 win at the French Open on 28 May 2024. That clay match featured one tie-break and 39 games in total, so there is precedent for tight patches even when sets swing. Now it resets on hard courts, and over three sets.
Davidovich Fokina A.
Vacherot V.
Results are still thin on hard courts this season, but the early split favours Vacherot at 2-1 compared with Davidovich Fokina's 1-1. Holding serve has been similar (80% to 82%), yet Vacherot has saved break points at a higher rate (76% to 67), which can decide a set quickly. In contrast, Davidovich Fokina's matches have tended to run longer on average so far.
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Across the last 10 matches, Vacherot has edged the record at 7-3 while Davidovich Fokina sits at 6-4. Vacherot has produced far more aces (8 per match to 4) and won a higher share of return games (22% to 15), but the trade-off has been more double faults.
In Adelaide this week, Vacherot advanced via walkover against Thanasi Kokkinakis on 13 Jan, while Davidovich Fokina beat Rinky Hijikata in straight sets the same day.Davidovich Fokina A.
Vacherot V.
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Bookmakers price Davidovich Fokina at 1.51 against Vacherot at 2.6; the first-set market is 1.58 versus 2.26. It is a clear lean, even with the season still finding its shape.
Davidovich Fokina has the ranking edge and the market support, and his hard-court break-point conversion has been slightly higher so far this season (54% to 50). Still, Vacherot's recent profile points to more return pressure and a bigger free-point threat, which can flip sets in a hurry.
Workload is another small factor: over the last five matches Davidovich Fokina has logged 8h 39m on court compared with Vacherot's 6h 04m, and this is only week two with the Australian Open looming.Prediction
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Valentin Vacherot
Overall indicators tilt towards Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, with bookmakers installing him as the favourite and the only previous meeting also going his way. Vacherot's 7-3 recent run and stronger return rate keep it competitive, but the balance of evidence points narrowly to Davidovich Fokina.
Odds
