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Aleksandar Vukic meets Tommy Paul in the Adelaide ATP quarter-finals on hard courts on 14 Jan 2026, a best-of-three with Australian Open momentum at stake and live coverage in focus.
Paul is ranked 21st and comes in as the clear favourite with bookmakers, but Vukic has built sharpness through qualifying and back-to-back straight-set wins this week. This preview also explains where to watch or follow the match live, alongside the key form and matchup angles.FINISHED
Vukic A.
Paul T.
3-6
, 2-6
Their only previous meeting came in May 2019 in the Savannah Challenger quarter-finals, where Vukic advanced via walkover on clay. There is no completed match record between them on hard courts, so this one is shaped far more by current form and the market than by history.
Vukic A.
Paul T.
The hard-court season sample is small, but Vukic has started 4-1 while Paul is 1-1, a reminder of how quickly early-week results can swing. Paul’s tracked hold rate on hard courts is perfect so far, while Vukic’s is much lower; with the season only in its second week, those figures need context rather than certainty.
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Vukic is 7-3 across his last 10 matches and comes in on a four-match winning run, capped by straight-set wins over Stefanos Tsitsipas and Andrea Vavassori in Adelaide. Paul is 5-5 over the same span, yet his underlying balance looks sturdier: he has won 20% of return games compared to Vukic’s 7%, and he has taken 60% of first sets to Vukic’s 40%.
Vukic A.
Paul T.
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Bookmakers price Paul at 1.34 against Vukic at 3.33; the first-set market is 1.44 versus 2.62. That gap reflects the ranking spread and a view that Paul’s baseline edge should translate over a best-of-three.
Vukic has served efficiently in his last 10, averaging 6.4 aces with just 1.4 double faults, and his recent Adelaide run suggests confidence is rising fast. Paul’s serve has been even more productive at 7.3 aces per match but comes with higher risk at 3.1 double faults, so clean early service games could decide the tone. Both have logged heavy court time on back-to-back days, and with the Australian Open close, managing energy while still starting sharply feels like the central challenge.
Prediction
Tommy Paul
Aleksandar Vukic
Overall indicators tilt towards Tommy Paul: the market is firmly on his side at 1.34 and his last-10 return impact has been far stronger than Aleksandar Vukic’s. Vukic’s momentum in Adelaide keeps it from feeling straightforward, especially this early in the season, but Paul’s broader baseline profile looks the more reliable path to control a best-of-three.
Odds
