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Alexander Bublik meets Alex De Minaur in the Australian Open last 16 on hard courts on 25 January 2026, with a best-of-five format that rewards nerve and endurance.
Bookmakers shade towards De Minaur, but Bublik has started the season 7-0 on hard and has already beaten him in a five-set major battle. This preview also explains where to watch or follow the match live. Even with clear trends on paper, the second week of the Australian Open rarely feels straightforward.FINISHED
Bublik A.
De Minaur A.
4-6
, 1-6
, 1-6
De Minaur leads the rivalry 3-2 overall and 2-1 on hard, so he has more positive reference points on this surface. But Bublik won the most recent meeting, edging a five-setter at the French Open on 29 May 2025. The margins are fine: De Minaur has taken both tiebreaks between them, while Bublik has won both deciding sets.
Bublik A.
De Minaur A.
Bublik is 7-0 on hard this season, with one title already secured, and he has held serve at a formidable 93% on the surface. De Minaur is 5-1, and his 31% return-games-won figure points to a steadier ability to apply pressure over time. Both have played long, tight matches on hard this year, with averages sitting around 26 games.
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Bublik is 8-2 across his last 10 and comes in on a seven-match winning run, including three straight-set victories at this tournament. De Minaur’s last-10 record is 6-4, yet he has also won five in a row and has not dropped a set in his three Australian Open matches.
The workload is close, though De Minaur has spent about 7 hours 36 minutes on court across his last three, compared with Bublik’s 6 hours 56 minutes.Bublik A.
De Minaur A.
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Bookmakers price Alex De Minaur at 1.57 against Alexander Bublik at 2.38; first-set prices are 1.67 versus 2.2. It reflects faith in De Minaur’s baseline solidity holding up over five sets, even against a server in form.
Bublik’s serve has driven his recent run, with 13 aces per match over his last 10 and a 92% service-games-won rate, so fast holds could swing momentum quickly. Yet their head-to-head trendline flags a vulnerability when the first delivery fades, with Bublik winning 34% of second-serve points on average in the series. De Minaur’s clearer route is to extend exchanges, lean into the stronger hard-court return profile, and make service games feel heavier. In the second week, that push-and-pull can turn a match on a handful of points.
Prediction
Alex De Minaur
Alexander Bublik
Overall indicators tilt towards Alex De Minaur: the market makes him the favourite and the head-to-head edge is narrowly in his favour, including on hard. Alexander Bublik’s form is undeniable and his serve can run hot, but over five sets De Minaur’s stronger return numbers on the surface look a touch more repeatable. In a week where everything feels complicated, that small stability matters.
Odds
