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Amanda Anisimova faces Sofia Kenin in the 1/32-finals at Wimbledon WTA on 2 July, with the match played on grass over best of three sets.
The market makes Anisimova a clear favourite, and the grass data largely supports that view. Kenin has the only previous win in this match-up, but the broader form picture points the other way.Kenin leads the rivalry 1-0 after their clay meeting in the Charleston WTA semi-finals on 5 April 2025. That result gives her a small historical angle, but it came away from grass and does not carry the same weight as the current surface numbers.
Anisimova A.
Kenin S.
Anisimova is 2-1 on grass this season, while Kenin is 2-3. The bigger difference is in the pattern of points: Anisimova has held 80% of her service games and won 38% of return games, which gives her more ways to control short grass-court swings.
Anisimova has won six of her last 10 matches, compared with three wins from 10 for Kenin. She has also been stronger on return in that spell, winning 44% of return games against Kenin's 26%, so the pressure is likely to fall more often on Kenin's serve.
Bookmakers price Anisimova at 1.14 against Kenin at 5.5; the first-set prices are 1.22 and 4.33. That is a strong market lean, not just a narrow preference.
Anisimova A.
Kenin S.
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Kenin's past win keeps this from being a clean one-way story, but the current numbers favour Anisimova in the areas that matter most on grass. Her service hold rate is higher, her return rate is much stronger, and the recent form gap is clear. The workload is similar enough that fatigue does not look like a major divider.
Prediction
Amanda Anisimova
Sofia Kenin
The data points clearly more towards Anisimova, mainly because her grass service numbers and recent return numbers are stronger. Kenin has the only head-to-head win, so there is some caution, but the market view and current form both support Anisimova as the more likely winner.
Odds
