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Arthur Gea meets Tomas Machac in the Montpellier ATP (indoor) last 16 on hard court on 4 February, a best-of-three test with ranking points and momentum at stake.
Machac arrives as the clear favourite on the prices, but Gea's recent run has been sharp enough to demand respect. Below you'll find the key form trends, what the numbers suggest on court, and how to watch or follow the match live.FINISHED
(RETIRED)
Gea A.
Machac T.
6-3
, 4-5
On hard courts this season, Gea is 10-1 and his return numbers have been punchy, winning 35% of return games while converting 46% of break points. Machac is 7-2 with a very similar hold rate at 86%, yet his return impact has been lighter at 21%, which can matter if this turns into a pattern of tight service holds and a few big moments. The contrast is striking, even with Machac owning an ATP title this season while Gea's silverware has come at Challenger level.
Gea has gone 9-1 across his last 10 matches, taking 80% of first sets and winning 31% of return games, so he has been getting in early and applying pressure. He also moved through his most recent match when Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard retired, keeping his Montpellier week alive with minimal scoreboard damage.
Machac is 7-3 in the same span and comes off a five-set loss to Lorenzo Musetti after wins over Stefanos Tsitsipas and Grigor Dimitrov, a run that underlines both his level and the workload he has carried.For reliable live streaming of this match, we recommend signing up with bet365. Please note that this service is strictly for users aged 18+ who maintain a funded account. Due to broadcasting rights, geo-restrictions may apply, so we advise checking the schedule to confirm availability in your location. In our experience, this is the premier option for watching the entire tennis season.
Bookmakers price Tomas Machac at 1.4 against Arthur Gea at 3; first-set prices are 1.5 for Machac and 2.63 for Gea. It points to a clear expectation of Machac control, even if Gea's recent results hint at a closer contest than the rankings alone might suggest.
Gea A.
Machac T.
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In these conditions, service patterns can settle matches quickly, and Machac's recent profile fits that, with 7.8 aces per match over his last 10 alongside a steady 86% service-games-won rate. Gea has been more disruptive on return and has still held up well on serve, but his 3.5 double faults per match is a small pressure point if sets tighten late.
The workload also tilts slightly towards Machac, who has logged 9 hours 19 minutes across his last three matches compared with Gea's 7 hours 58 minutes, a detail that may matter if this stretches into a long third set.Prediction
Tomas Machac
Arthur Gea
Overall indicators tilt towards Tomas Machac, led by the market view and his stronger season results at ATP level on hard courts. Gea's 9-1 recent run and higher return-game win rate keep the upset case alive, but the balance of pricing, ranking position and Machac's recent ability to handle big matches points slightly more towards him.
Odds
